Foreign Policy in Trump’s Second Administration

Former President Donald Trump was re-elected on November 5 as he strategically navigated his campaign by focusing on alliances and key issues, which contributed to his victory. He secured significant financial and logistical support from allies, including Elon Musk, who spent at least $119 million on canvassing in battleground states. Trump kept his team stable, avoiding the internal disarray seen in his previous campaigns, and concentrated on immigration rather than the more divisive topic of abortion. In addition, Trump’s focus on issues like the economy, border security, and crime resonated with voters, particularly as inflation remained a significant concern. High prices weighed on public sentiment, and Trump successfully linked economic struggles to the Democratic administration. Despite suggestions to alter his approach, Trump engaged audiences by delivering speeches that deviated from prepared economic points to focus instead on crime and immigration, which energized his base.

Indo-Pacific

Donald Trump’s second term in the White House promises a continuation of certain aggressive foreign policies from his first term while introducing new dynamics. Continuity with the Biden administration in South Asia policy is likely to occur due to bipartisan support for the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. Initiated during Trump’s first term and strengthened under President Biden, this strategy focuses on countering China’s influence by strengthening ties with South Asian nations and promoting alternatives to Chinese investments, including through the U.S. International Development Finance Corp. and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue.

Trump's emphasis on great-power competition suggests that the Indo-Pacific strategy will remain, potentially sidelining Pakistan due to its close ties with China. Changes may occur on a bilateral level: Trump might shift U.S. relations with Bangladesh toward development and governance, approach trade with South Asia with a hardline stance on tariffs, and be more open to engaging with the Taliban in Afghanistan, despite its poor human rights record. Climate change, a priority under Biden, could lose emphasis in U.S.-South Asia relations. Unless Trump pursues an unlikely rapprochement with China, the Indo-Pacific strategy is expected to be a lasting fixture of U.S. policy in South Asia.

China

Trump will likely intensify his trade war with China, favoring tariffs up to 60% on Chinese imports and aiming for economic decoupling. He may also pressure Taiwan to increase its defense spending, but it’s unlikely he would completely withdraw U.S. support. Trump’s unpredictability and his close personal relationships, such as with Xi Jinping, could play a pivotal role in U.S.-China relations. China has expressed willingness to work with the U.S. based on "mutual respect.” Despite official remarks indicating a desire for stable U.S.-China relations, Chinese strategists anticipate intense rivalry under Trump, focusing on trade, technology, and security concerns. They expect more tariffs and possible revocation of China’s favored trading status, adding to current economic strain.

Beijing plans to pursue technological and economic self-sufficiency and may look to strengthen ties with other regions, including Europe and the Global South, if Trump’s isolationist policies continue. Also, China sees a potential global power vacuum to fill, especially as the U.S. will likely disengage from multilateral commitments. In response, Beijing is likely to advance specific trade and diplomatic bargains to protect its interests while managing domestic economic challenges. Regarding Taiwan, strategists believe Trump might reduce U.S. support compared to the Biden administration’s high-pressure stance.

Elbridge Colby is extremely likely to influence the Trump administration on China.  He is a former Trump administration defense official and co-founder of the Marathon Initiative think tank, is a prominent advocate for refocusing U.S. defense strategy away from Europe and Russia to concentrate fully on the growing threat from China. He argues that U.S. resources should prioritize preventing China from gaining dominance in the Asia-Pacific, especially around Taiwan, which he views as critical to U.S. influence in the world’s most economically significant region. Colby’s ideas are rooted in a modern adaptation of mid-20th-century grand strategy that now considers Asia, rather than Europe, as the global center of gravity.

Russia

Trump questions U.S. financial support for Ukraine, suggesting a rapid negotiation approach to ending the conflict, which may involve compelling Ukraine to give up some territory. This aligns with some Russian terms but contradicts NATO’s position. Trump’s strained relationship with NATO and encouragement of European countries to bear more defense responsibilities could lead to shifts in transatlantic relations. The Kremlin responded cautiously to Trump's election, acknowledging his campaign statements about wanting to end the Ukraine war but expressed skepticism about real policy change. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov labeled the U.S. a "hostile state" engaged in conflict with Russia via Ukraine, stating that any shift in U.S. foreign policy would take time to become clear. Russian officials, while conveying a formal willingness to work with the new administration, remain doubtful due to bipartisan U.S. opposition toward Russia.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, took a softer stance, suggesting Trump’s presidency could offer a chance to improve relations. However, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev noted Trump’s aversion to foreign spending, implying it could weaken U.S. support for Ukraine. Although Trump has pledged to quickly end the Ukraine war, he has provided few details. Meanwhile, Russia’s conditions for peace remain firm, including the acceptance of its territorial gains in Ukraine, which Kyiv has rejected.

Anti-Trust

Donald Trump is likely to scale back some of President Biden's antitrust policies, including potential efforts to break up Google’s parent company, Alphabet, over its search dominance. While Trump is expected to continue Big Tech cases initiated during his first term, he has expressed reservations about a Google breakup, suggesting alternative remedies to ensure fairness without dismantling the company. The Department of Justice currently has cases against Google and Apple, with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) suing Meta and Amazon. Remedies for Google, such as divesting Chrome or ending agreements to be the default search engine on Apple devices, won’t be addressed in court until 2025, leaving time for Trump to influence outcomes. He is also expected to reverse Biden-era policies that discourage settling with merging companies, allowing mergers to proceed if competition concerns are addressed.

Trump’s administration may also challenge the FTC’s ban on noncompete clauses, which affects 20% of U.S. workers. However, changes to FTC Chair Lina Khan's initiatives would depend on confirming a Trump-appointed replacement to achieve a Republican majority on the commission. While Trump’s approach may ease restrictions on mergers, antitrust enforcement will likely continue, as his administration filed a comparable number of merger cases to Biden’s during his first term.

Other Issues

• Middle East: Trump’s stance includes support for Israel and the Abraham Accords while remaining critical of calls for a ceasefire with Hamas. He may be less restrained than the Biden administration in responding to Iran, possibly considering military action against its nuclear facilities. His administration might seek a new deal with Iran but is expected to approach regional issues with a hardline stance.
• Africa: Trump’s approach to Africa would likely continue to frame U.S. engagement through the lens of countering Chinese and Russian influence, despite concerns from African leaders about being viewed solely as strategic pawns. His past derogatory remarks about Africa could undermine diplomatic efforts.
• Immigration: Trump plans to launch a large-scale deportation effort, reinstating the travel bans and other policies from his first term. This strategy could be expensive and logistically challenging while also straining U.S. relations with countries with significant migrant populations.
• India: Relations with India would likely remain strong, though Trump’s transactional style may lead to friction in areas such as defense and trade. Shared opposition to China would likely keep ties intact, although Trump’s distaste for multilateral frameworks may affect joint initiatives like the Quad.
• Technology: Trump would continue efforts to curb China’s tech industry growth, building on measures from his first term and those furthered by the Biden administration. He may seek to bring more tech manufacturing to the U.S., though his precise approach to Big Tech domestically remains unclear.

Essentially, Trump’s foreign policy would likely emphasize unilateral actions, intensified competition with China, and a transactional approach in areas ranging from defense to trade alliances. His administration would continue prioritizing “America First” policies, reshaping relationships with both allies and adversaries.