Blinking Red: Terrorism is Resurging

Terrorism has returned as a critical threat to democracies and corporations because of an increased likelihood of attacks. Former acting CIA director Michael Morell and Harvard scholar Graham Allison have warned that there is currently a "serious threat" of terror attacks. As they noted, George Tenet, director of Central Intelligence from May 1997 to September 11, 2001, consistently warned about the threat posed by Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. Despite his repeated public and private alerts to top U.S. officials, including Presidents Clinton and Bush, the intelligence community could not pinpoint the specifics of the 9/11 attack. Two decades later, FBI Director Christopher Wray is issuing similar warnings about elevated terrorist threats, particularly after Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel. Wray emphasized the increased danger from foreign terrorists, especially those exploiting the US southern border, and he highlighted concerns about Iran's plotting and IS-K's capabilities. Other senior officials, including CENTCOM Commander General Erik Kurilla and outgoing National Counterterrorism Center Director Christine Abizaid, echo these alarms, pointing to the elevated global threat environment.

Morrell and Graham’s article underscores the importance of taking these warnings seriously, noting that past alerts have often correlated with actual risks and have sometimes led to preventive actions. The growing number of terrorist attacks worldwide and foiled plots in the US reinforce the seriousness of the current threat. The threats include international terrorism, domestic terrorism, and state-sponsored terrorism, with lone actors and small cells using readily available weapons posing significant risks. This is why the US State Department designated the Nordic Resistance Movement (NRM) and three of its leaders—Fredrik Vejdeland, Pär Öberg, and Leif Robert Eklund—as Specially Designated Global Terrorists. The NRM, the largest neo-Nazi group in Sweden with branches in Norway, Denmark, Iceland, and Finland, is known for its violent, racist, anti-immigrant, antisemitic, and anti-LGBTQI+ activities. The group's members have engaged in violent attacks and have been involved in weapons and explosives preparation, as well as training in combat and knife fighting. Another recent example is the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) killing more than 100 people in an attack on June 11 in Burkina Faso.

Besides physical violence, governments are taking terrorist propaganda and disinformation more seriously. In the United States, the Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas stated DHS had noticed “a resurgence in recruiting of ISIS,” and he warned of growing dangers from disinformation spread by foreign actors heading into the US presidential election. In addition, Europol coordinated two operations targeting 13 websites used for spreading terrorist propaganda linked to groups like Islamic State, al-Qaida, and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham. The yearlong effort involved law enforcement from 10 countries, resulting in the removal of these sites under EU laws that mandate content removal within an hour of a removal order. Servers in Germany, the Netherlands, the US, and Iceland were taken down, and nine individuals were arrested in Spain. The terrorist threat in the US and EU remains significant, with jihadist terrorism as a primary concern along with right-wing extremism. Corporations will face significant incidental risks from the resurgence of transnational terrorism and lone actors.

Nuclear Weapons and NATO

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released a report highlighting that the world's nine nuclear-armed states increased their spending on modernizing nuclear arsenals by one-third in 2023. This surge in spending, totaling $91.4 billion, was primarily driven by the United States, which accounted for 80% of the increase. The report noted that the wars in Ukraine and Gaza contributed to heightened global reliance on nuclear weapons, with several states deploying new nuclear-capable systems. Despite a slight reduction in global warhead numbers, concerns persist over escalating nuclear capabilities and reduced transparency in disarmament efforts.

Within these heightened tensions and higher budgets, the NATO alliance conveyed a message to both Russia and other member states during a recent meeting between NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and US President Joe Biden. Stoltenberg's comments to the British Telegraph about potential increased deployment of nuclear weapons by member states drew criticism from Moscow. In terms of collective security, NATO's identity heavily relies on its nuclear arsenal. Without these weapons and the extensive global commitments of US conventional forces, NATO perceives vulnerability to Russian aggression. A recent report in the Financial Times highlighted internal NATO plans indicating severe deficiencies in air defenses for its eastern flank, with many European members' military capacities remaining underfunded. There are also divisions in policy direction, particularly concerning Hungary and Türkiye. From a strategic standpoint, Stoltenberg's assertive remarks should be interpreted within the context of a leader preparing to step down and aiming to leave NATO stronger than when he assumed leadership. Attention is now shifting to potential successors like Mark Rutte, who reportedly assured Hungary of special considerations if elected, contrasting with the unclear stance of Donald Trump, the current frontrunner for the next US presidency based on current polling.

Microsoft Calls for Red Lines in Cyberwar

Microsoft President Brad Smith testified before a congressional committee about the company's cybersecurity practices, following a DHS report on a 2023 incident where Chinese government-linked hackers breached senior U.S. officials' email accounts. Smith committed to providing timelines for implementing the CSRB’s 16 recommendations and updates on Microsoft’s Secure Future Initiative. Importantly, he called for government-defined red lines and collective action to hold nation-state hackers accountable. Microsoft has led the way in calling for greater legal frameworks for cyber conflicts, such as the digital Geneva conventions, and their role in defending critical infrastructure adds weight to Smith’s call for government actions. If corporations are to take a leading role in cyber defenses, then the government will need to establish red lines and regulations for liability and deterrence purposes.

US Army Warns Against Fake Job Offers

The US Army issued a warning to soldiers and civilian employees about the growing threat of foreign adversaries using social media and fake job offers to gather sensitive information. Particularly highlighting China's expanding online influence, the Army cautioned against interactions on platforms like LinkedIn, Reddit, and Discord, where adversaries may subtly solicit details on military operations, defense contracts, or technological expertise. Tactics include starting with innocuous questions and potentially escalating to more sensitive topics or offers such as disproportionately high payments or expenses-paid trips to China. The memo stressed the importance of reporting suspicious contacts or financial offers and noted recent incidents like the arrest of Sgt. Korbein Schultz for allegedly selling military documents, underscoring ongoing security risks. For social media companies, this is especially important as they are the tools being used by foreign threat actors to target national security. Their own security and insider threat operations directly impact the defense of Western governments in the social engineering space.

Bud Light Still Facing Financial Problems

In 2023, conservative activists and consumers ignited a major decline in Bud Light sales after reacting strongly to a transgender influencer's endorsement during March Madness, which included burning Bud Light boxes and calling for a boycott. Over a year later, the backlash persists, severely affecting small and medium-sized Anheuser-Busch wholesalers who heavily rely on Bud Light sales. Many wholesalers reported significant revenue drops and personal sacrifices, such as pay cuts and uncertainty about their business's future. Since April 2024, sales have improved slightly, indicating the boycott may be ending over the medium term. Despite recent signs of sales improvement, Bud Light's recovery remains uncertain. Anheuser-Busch has expressed continued support for its wholesalers during this challenging period. The continued problems show the harmful impacts of advertising politicization and reputational warfare. Bud Light’s problems are uncommon because as Maurice Schweitzer, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, stated, “Given the history of boycotts and its history of ineffectiveness, it is really surprising that this one has had the staying power that it has.” However, the global marketplace is vast, and more brands are likely to face similar problems as some companies are deliberately creating alternatives based on desired politics.

US Concerned Over Chinese Port in Peru

China is expanding its global influence with the construction of a $3.5 billion deep-water port in Chancay, Peru, set to be inaugurated later this year by President Xi Jinping. Managed by China's Cosco Shipping, the port aims to bolster trade between Asia and South America, particularly in electric vehicles and other exports, and will accommodate mega ships. This development raises concerns for the US, which fears increased Chinese control over South American resources. Meanwhile, Peruvian farmers anticipate new market opportunities, and additional Chinese investments in Peru's ports highlight growing Sino-Peruvian economic ties amid global geopolitical tensions.

Red Sea Attacks Extremely Disruptive

Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have drastically reduced container throughput by 90%, prompting vessels to reroute around Africa, adding significant costs in fuel and crew bonuses. Escalating war-risk insurance premiums, now 1,000% higher than pre-conflict levels, alongside heightened security risks, make circumventing the Red Sea financially preferable for shipping companies. The attacks, which have impacted at least 65 countries, underscore the indiscriminate nature of Houthi strikes, targeting a wide range of vessels. Recent incidents include the sinking of the UK-owned Rubymar and ongoing attacks such as those reported by UK Maritime Trade Operations on Greece-owned carriers.

New AI Research Institute in Israel

Shalev Hulio, co-founder and former CEO of the company behind the Pegasus spyware, has launched a new artificial intelligence (AI) research institute at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Israel. Supported by leaders from Microsoft and Nvidia, the institute aims to promote Israel's leadership in AI applications across various industries, including cyber, medical, finance, and education. Israeli President Isaac Herzog attended the launch, emphasizing the importance of such initiatives for Israel's technological future, especially after the Israel-Hamas War. The institute will train CEOs on integrating AI technologies into their companies' products and services and will develop advanced AI research laboratories with supercomputing infrastructures.