Niger-US Agree to Remove Troops

The United States has agreed to remove more than 1,000 military personnel from Niger, although there is no current timeline established. Only a month prior, the military junta of Niger ended the military cooperation agreement with the US. This occurred because the US stopped sharing intelligence with the Nigerien government following the coup. There are broad security and geopolitical implications for this change. The biggest negative implication will be for counterterrorism operations because the base in Niger is primarily used for surveillance of jihadists. As such, Islamist terrorism in the region, including in Burkina Faso and Mali, are highly likely to increase.
 

As Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at CSIS, put it, “In a region that now is defined as the epicenter of global terrorism, Washington is on the back foot, increasingly blind to the plans of jihadi groups and dangerously low on the goodwill required to maintain a foothold there, imperiling its vital strategic interests.” Geopolitically, Niger is moving closer to Russia and China, and that is further causing problems for great power competition and Western interests on the continent. Niger has sought a military agreement with Russia that would include air defense, and they have already signed a $400 million oil deal with China. The West is overwhelmingly losing in Africa, and this will be another major blow.
 

Chad has also asked the US to remove its personnel from a French base in N'Djamena. However, French troops will remain in Chad, which will limit the negative impact to counterterrorism and counter-narcotics operations. Should France either willingly or unwillingly leave Chad, then there will be a significant strategic void in a dangerous area dominated by jihadists. However, there would be positive geopolitical implications should that occur because then Western governments can turn against Chad, which has increased relations with Russia by supporting the Wagner Group in Libya. In addition, Chad supports the RSF in Sudan, helping destabilize the area.

Chinese Spies Caught, CCP Expands Espionage

Chinese spying operations have led to a major response by Western governments. Britain has charged two people with spying for China in the last week, and Germany arrested three people for spying as well. Although China has extensive spying capabilities, this does indicate an amateurish approach to have that many spies observed and caught. The spies caught in Germany were stealing information on technology with military applications since at least June 2022. China is not standing still either. The country has announced that there will be a new Information Support Force, a new branch in the People’s Liberation Army. However, this is unlikely to improve their success at spying because the new branch will report to the Central Military Commission and duplicate efforts by the Joint Staff Intelligence Bureau. The Ministry of State Security (China’s civilian intelligence agency) reports to the National Security Commission of the CCP. Both commissions are chaired by Xi Jinping, and this new branch demonstrates his intention to expand espionage efforts.

Part of that expanded espionage efforts are their cyber capabilities as well. Groups like Volt Typhoon have started penetrating energy and critical infrastructure with the intention of having large-scale disruption abilities. These penetrations of critical infrastructure are considered “pre-positioning” and part of the country’s overall espionage efforts. The FBI called out that Chinese-backed hackers already have access to US critical infrastructure and capable of delivering a “devastating blow” at the time of their choice. Many corporations are at the center of China’s espionage campaign and hacking activities, and their work with government will determine whether China is successful. Importantly, considering Xi’s changing strategic approach, corporations should expect significant efforts to penetrate their networks, steal intellectual property, and plant employees to help with these efforts.

Employee Activism Poses Insider Risk Threat

In response to a sit-in protest at Google over the tech company’s cloud-computing contract with Israel, the company fired 28 employees. This is an indicator that there is a change in corporate culture and that companies will no longer tolerate disruptive protests within the company. Employees from companies including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft have previously held protests against their employers over climate change and government contracts. During the 2020 election and George Floyd protests, companies encouraged activism and dissent amongst their employees to appease them. 

Importantly, workers do not have First Amendment protections to protest at work. This has become a major issue since Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack and the subsequent war in Gaza as pro-Palestinian protestors have disrupted several companies. Corporations should expect employee activism to be a long-term issue. Google’s response is an indicator that corporations are unlikely to tolerate similar behavior that threatens their profitability and safety at work. Besides workplace disruptions, such protests also increase the risk of violence at offices.

Students are also increasing their protests about Palestine and other causes at universities. At Columbia, students created a protest encampment that was broken up by police because of safety concerns, more than 50 were arrested, and the main campus closed, at the University of Southern California, and dozens also arrested at the University of Texas, Austin. 

US Presidential Election Likely Comes Down to Seven States

As analysts look at the 2024 US presidential election, the decision will likely come down to seven competitive states. These states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. According to Reuters, “Republican former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge against Democratic President Joe Biden in polls gathered in swing states, although some results are within the surveys’ margins of error.” The data is still extremely mixed, which is one reason the forecasts for the election are so difficult. However, analysts should also focus on cultural issues and voters. Biden’s presidency has disappointed several important political groups, and Trump will gain an edge if those groups choose to stay home instead of voting. Analysts will need to break down both traditional and non-traditional variables in their forecasting.

US Dollar Gains Against Asian Currencies

The US dollar has gained strength against other currencies due to a stronger economy and higher inflation numbers, which means that the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut interest rates in the short term. Higher interest rates strengthen the dollar by bringing in investment and purchasing of bonds, but that has caused currency problems in Asia. For example, the dollar is now worth about 155 yen, the strongest since 1990, and the yen has fallen by 9%. In response Japan has stated that it might start buying yen to strengthen its value. The dollar has increased against Korea’s won by about 7% as well. Currency market fluctuations can cause problems for multinational corporations, and weaker currencies in Asia will make it significantly more difficult to reach sales goals.