#1

Europe Struggles with Trump 2.0

European leaders are grappling with the uncertainties of a potential Trump administration, dubbed "Trumpology.” Rather than speculating on Trump’s unpredictable policies, experts suggest that the EU should focus on addressing its internal weaknesses to maintain unity in the face of challenges. Key concerns include potential U.S. trade tariffs targeting the EU, which could disproportionately impact Germany, Ireland, and Italy, risking division among EU member states. Trump’s aggressive trade stance on China could further strain EU cohesion as member states diverge on whether to embrace or resist increased Chinese exports. Additionally, the possibility of U.S. secondary sanctions on Chinese entities could force European firms to choose between the U.S. and China, exacerbating fragmentation within the EU. The Russia-Ukraine conflict poses another challenge. If Trump lifts U.S. sanctions on Moscow, EU unity in maintaining its own sanctions regime would be tested, particularly with countries like Hungary potentially opposing renewed measures. Such scenarios would strain the EU’s capacity to act independently, as it often relies on U.S. enforcement to ensure sanctions effectiveness. Ultimately, experts emphasize that the EU’s best strategy is to prioritize internal unity, preparing for inevitable unpredictability from a Trump administration. Without this cohesion, the bloc risks being outmaneuvered on multiple fronts, from trade to geopolitical stability. Despite what experts are advising, though, the EU is extremely unlikely to remain united, which means corporations will need prepare for political instability and competition within the trade bloc. 

#2

AI Driving Energy Competition

The rise of generative AI is driving a global scramble for energy resources to power data centers, with electricity becoming as vital as silicon chips for tech firms. Companies like Microsoft are investing billions in regions like Malaysia’s Johor state, leveraging its low-cost energy and expedited construction policies. These AI data centers require immense power—sometimes exceeding 90 megawatts—and cooling systems, making cooler climates and coastal areas attractive for future development. Traditional data center hubs like Ireland and Singapore are facing capacity constraints, opening opportunities for emerging markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Chile. To attract investments, nations are offering tax breaks, fast-tracking approvals, and prioritizing infrastructure development, creating intense competition in what has been dubbed "electro-diplomacy." This energy-driven shift is reshaping global influence, likened to the oil boom of the 20th century, though less visible. However, the real AI innovation still occurs in major research hubs like San Francisco, London, Beijing, and Paris. Data centers, by contrast, operate as low-margin businesses focused on scale and efficiency. While energy-rich nations capitalize on hosting data centers, their advantage may be temporary. As dominant economies develop cleaner, cheaper energy solutions, the competitive edge of emerging markets could diminish. Corporations will need to understand both the geopolitics of energy in the coming years and likely technological developments that will shift this balance. 

#3

Political Instability in Canada

Canada faces political turmoil following the abrupt resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, just weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, which could bring severe sanctions on Canadian exports. Freeland resigned after rejecting a lesser position offered by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, citing concerns about increased spending jeopardizing Canada’s ability to handle potential U.S. tariffs. Freeland, who had been a key figure in Canada-U.S. relations, previously played a critical role in renegotiating NAFTA. Her departure has left a leadership vacuum, prompting criticism from provincial leaders and concerns about the government’s ability to project unity and develop a coherent strategy. Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called for a national election to restore stability. Within Trudeau’s ruling Liberal Party, dissatisfaction is mounting, with some legislators urging him to step down. The Liberals are trailing in polls ahead of the next election, due by October 2025, increasing pressure on Trudeau to stabilize the government. Freeland’s exit has also complicated Canada’s preparations for dealing with Trump, known for his aggressive stance on trade with Canada. Corporations, such as those in the tech sector, are likely to see the greatest disruptions from the U.S.-Canada trade issues, and Canada is likely to experience some political instability as Trudeau becomes increasingly unpopular. 

#4

EU Issues First Sanctions on Hybrid Threats

The European Council has sanctioned 16 individuals and three entities responsible for Russia’s destabilizing activities abroad, marking the first use of new powers adopted in October. These measures target Russian military intelligence operatives, propagandists, and collaborators involved in cyberattacks, influence campaigns, and intelligence operations. Among those sanctioned are individuals linked to GRU Unit 29155, propaganda efforts such as the Doppelgänger campaign, and espionage against Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (BND). The move responds to Russia’s hybrid activities aimed at dividing and destabilizing the EU, which include cyberattacks, disinformation, sabotage, and the instrumentalization of migrants. Josep Borrell, the EU’s high representative, highlighted these threats as part of a broader campaign to weaken the bloc. These sanctions highlight a fundamental geopolitical change in the recognition that power politics is not merely about military capabilities. As such, countries and international organizations are likely to start shifting their strategies for combatting these threats, which will likely include corporations and their interests. 

#5

DHS Warns Cities about Weaponized Drones

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has issued warnings about the increasing misuse of commercial drones, highlighting significant gaps in the ability of U.S. cities to counter the growing threat of weaponized unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). A DHS memo from August underscores that advancements in drone technology, such as autonomous flight, jamming protection, and swarming capabilities, are outpacing counter-UAS measures. Violent extremists are reportedly experimenting with modifying drones to carry hazardous payloads, influenced by developments in foreign conflict zones like Ukraine. To address these concerns, DHS has recommended measures such as training law enforcement to handle drones, repositioning surveillance equipment, and deploying drone detection sensors where legal. Recent drone sightings along the East Coast, including in New Jersey, have fueled public concern, though many incidents were attributed to misidentified flights. Weaponized commercial drones have emerged as a critical threat to both cities and corporations, and DHS’s memo highlights the continued lack of prepared responses. 

#6

Privacy Issues and Trump’s FTC Choice

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for FTC Chair, Andrew Ferguson, brings a mixed approach to privacy and Big Tech regulation. While Ferguson has consistently supported privacy-related enforcement actions, he diverges from his predecessor Lina Khan by opposing the FTC's use of enforcement powers as a substitute for comprehensive privacy legislation, which he believes should be led by Congress. Ferguson’s tenure is likely to deprioritize FTC rulemaking efforts, such as the proposed commercial surveillance and data security rule, though he is expected to maintain a focus on children’s privacy through updates to the COPPA rule. He has strongly criticized Big Tech's data practices, decrying the sale of sensitive personal information and inadequate privacy policies, while also supporting actions against location data brokers for failing to anonymize data effectively. Many technology companies have competing interests and values when it comes to privacy and regulations. Stringent regulations on privacy would lead to a decrease in innovation, as has happened in Europe, but many corporations also support privacy practices that protect client data. 

#7

El Salvador’s New Cybersecurity Laws Raise Concerns

El Salvador’s newly approved cybersecurity and data protection laws have raised concerns over media freedom and privacy rights, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW). The laws establish a state cybersecurity agency with broad powers, including the ability to order the removal of online information under the pretext of data protection. A key provision, the "right to be forgotten," allows individuals to request the removal of data deemed “inadequate, inaccurate, irrelevant, outdated, or excessive.” While intended to protect privacy, HRW argues it could be abused to pressure media outlets into deleting critical information about officials, threatening public access to important records. Violations of these data protection rules could result in heavy fines for media and search engines. The laws follow allegations of government misuse of Pegasus spyware to monitor journalists and activists in 2022, further amplifying concerns about abuse of power. Normally, El Salvador is nor a major geopolitical issue, but the concerns about this law mirror broader global trends. For instance, India’s new cybersecurity regulations also face criticism for vague language that could enable government overreach in collecting, sharing, and storing user data without proper oversight, highlighting a growing global tension between privacy protection and state authority.