Niger Ends Military Agreement with US

Niger officially ended its military ties with the United States, previously a critical ally against Islamist terrorists and sub-state violence. Diplomatic discussions between the two countries failed, and the military junta issued a statement denouncing “with force the condescending attitude combined with the threat of reprisals” by the head of the US delegation. In December 2023, Niger signed a defense agreement with Russia, which was a major point of contention during the negotiations. The United States was the last Western government to still work with the military junta as Niger had already removed French troops and ended an anti-migration deal with the EU. Currently, more than 1,000 troops are stationed in Agadez in northern Niger, and the base is used for operating drones monitoring jihadists like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. One government official stated, “If we lose our footprint in the Sahel, that will degrade our ability to do active watching and warning, including for homeland defense.”

Africa is a critically important continent for security and economic reasons. Nations like the Congo and DRC provide important resources for manufacturing, and there are a significant number of transnational terrorist organizations there. Niger ended the agreement with the US in favor of working more closely with Russia is the latest indicator that Western governments and companies are overwhelmingly losing in the economic competition on the continent. Both Russia and China have expanded their footprint in North Africa and the Sahel, and the US is unlikely to gain ground because of the government’s promotion of democratic rights and corporation’s unwillingness to accept local requirements. Western corporations should expect an increasingly hostile business environment for them as they will be deprioritized for eastern governments and companies.

EU Regulates Speech on Social Media

The EU will impose new regulations on social media companies and online platforms, such as X, TikTok, and Facebook, that will fine these companies that do not sufficiently mitigate risks to elections. If they fail to do so, they could be fined up to 6% of their annual global revenue. These regulations are part of the Digital Services Act that requires technology companies to remove illegal and harmful content on their platforms. EU elections will take place in June 2024, and they likely imposed these regulations because of the impending election with concerns over misinformation and AI-generated images. A European Commission official did note that these rules are “not legally binding on the platforms. The companies are free to choose how to mitigate risks.” Misinformation and deepfakes do pose risks to the legitimacy of elections and political stability, but these regulations pose risks to companies and democracy as well. Companies that attempt to mitigate risks could still face fines if EU regulators determine they are insufficient. In addition, this essentially dictates that governments get to regulate speech on social media platforms because they could declare something is misinformation even if it is not. Corporations will have to navigate a complicated regulatory market in Europe.

US Supreme Court Hears Case about Social Media Companies

The Supreme Court held a hearing on the lawsuit between the Biden administration and Republican-led states over the federal government’s ability to combat controversial social media posts, such as dealing with elections and the pandemic. The lawyers for the states argued that the Democratic administration unconstitutionally worked with social media companies to limit speech. Lower courts sided with the states, but the Supreme Court blocked the rulings until they could consider the constitutional issues. Justices were concerned that if they limited the government’s ability to work with social media companies could harm their ability to deal with issues like doxxing. Other justices were concerned with the government regulating everyday speech and censoring political opposition. Conservatives have argued that social media companies regularly target them for disagreeing with the companies’ left-wing politics, and if the Supreme Court sides with the federal government, then conservatives are likely to pursue further regulatory policies at both the state and federal level, similar to the laws passed in Texas and Florida.

Internet Outage in West Africa

MainOne, a West African data center and connectivity provider, acknowledged that an internet outage that hit West and Central Africa last week was due to a break in its submarine cable system, what they called an “external incident.” This incident caused the cable system to be cut in the Atlantic Ocean offshore Cote D’Ivoire. According to the company, "Our preliminary analysis would suggest some form of seismic activity on the seabed resulted in a break to the cable.” While this was likely due to natural causes, it highlights a serious threat to modern business operations and critical infrastructure. Underwater sea cables are critical to modern internet infrastructure, but there are risks from both natural and human causes businesses will need to monitor.

Russia Declares Companies Legitimate Targets

Russia stated on March 20 that it assessed that the US was using commercial satellite operators like SpaceX for intelligence gathering efforts. As part of their statement, they declared that using companies made them legitimate targets for “retaliatory measures.” SpaceX is currently building a network of hundreds of spy satellites for a US intelligence agency. It remains unclear if this was Russia indicating they have plans to target corporations. However, this is an important indicator that technology companies are becoming increasingly embroiled in geopolitics, and the US’s capitalist approach means that such companies are already critically connected to national security. Should Russia’s statement become the accepted norm in international relations, then technology companies will face significantly more physical security and cybersecurity risks.

Microsoft Exists Russian Market

Due to European sanctions over the Ukraine invasion, Microsoft will suspend access to its cloud services for Russian users by the end of March. Russian companies will be negatively impacted as the majority rely on Microsoft’s software, and transitioning to local providers will highly likely be disruptive because of infrastructure issues, different interfaces, and the lack of Russian alternatives. Russia is dependent on foreign technology companies because of the lack of their own capabilities. Major technology companies like Microsoft have a significant influence on global politics and economics, and this likely means that Western companies will remove themselves from Russia. Russia will likely turn to Chinese companies, and this is likely to further balkanization of technology as authoritarian countries stop using Western products willingly or unwillingly.

Libs of TikTok Highlights Reputational Risks

Following a social media post by the conservative account Libs of TikTok, Butler Middle School in Waukesha, Wisconsin received bomb and school shooting threats. Libs of TikTok commented on Jeffrey Taege, the assistant principal, and his 2022 social media post that argued parents should not have a say on what is taught in schools. Law enforcement found none of the threats to be credible. This is not the only time that posts by Libs of TikTok have led to such threats, and it highlights an important risk for corporations during this election season. Content posted by people associated with companies can lead to reputational harm and threats, especially as accounts like Libs of TikTok repost such content.

Bank of Japan Ends Negative Interest Rates

The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rates by setting the short-term rate to 0-0.1% and 0.1% to reserves. In addition, they eliminated the bond yield control and buying risky assets. This is Japan’s first interest rate hike in 17 years even if they’re still near zero. These ultra-easy rates are likely to continue for some time because of the structural issues of Japan’s economy unless inflation increases, but this is a strong indicator of the changing global economy. After the Great Recession, most major economies used low interest rates to bolster their development, and then the inflation from the pandemic ended this monetary policy approach. Because Japan deciding to raise rates is an important indicator, companies should expect few central banks to cut rates in the medium term.