Iran Vows Retaliation for Israeli Strike
Israel targeted Iran’s consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, killing twelve people including two Iranian generals and a member of Hezbollah. Both Iran and Hezbollah have pledged “punishment and revenge” for the strike with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stating that “We will make them regretful about the crime and similar acts.” This is only the latest incident of Israel targeting Iranian officers in Syria and Lebanon because of the funding and resources the country provides for Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist groups.
Iran is extremely likely to retaliate, which is why the US has tried to make clear that they were not part of the attack as Iran has stated that “the United States is responsible for all crimes committed by the Israeli regime.” There are several paths this retaliation could take, including cyberattacks, kinetic attacks on US forces in the region, attacking Israeli consulates abroad, attacking Israel directly, encouraging Hezbollah to attack, and ramping up its nuclear program.
The most likely actions will be cyberattacks against Israel, attacks on Israeli facilities abroad, and kinetic attacks against US forces in the region. Iran is unlikely to go beyond that because they do not want all-out war with either Israel or the US. In February, America bombed several Iranian targets to stop them attacking US forces in Iraq, and Iran knows that any further targeting will be met with a similar response. However, Israel is preparing for the possibility of a complete war with Hezbollah in case that is the path Iran takes. Isreal's strike increases the risk of a broader conflict in the region and Iran’s retaliatory path will determine if that happens.
Israel Kills Seven Aid Workers
On April 1, Israel killed seven volunteers with the World Central Kitchen (WCK), an aid organization founded by celebrity chef José Andrés. According to reports, Israel targeted a three-car convoy due to suspicions that a terrorist was traveling with the volunteers, and they used drones to target the convoy after WCK had deposited more than 100 tons of humanitarian food aid to a warehouse in Deir al-Balah. WCK CEO Erin Gore said of the attack, “This is not only an attack against WCK, this is an attack on humanitarian organizations showing up in the most dire of situations where food is being used as a weapon of war.” The UN has noted that at least 196 aid workers have died in Gaza since the beginning of the war in October, the majority of whom worked with UNRWA. This event will likely have broader political implications because it will likely be used as a cover for the US, UK, and other governments to reduce their support for Israel. Three of the aid workers killed were British nationals, and PM Rishi Sunak issued a call for an investigation into the incident. The US had already allowed a ceasefire vote at the UNSC, but this event will likely cause Western governments to reduce support for Israel and increases the likelihood of a ceasefire by the summer.
China Criticizes US Export Rules
China has criticized the Biden administration for the revised rules intended to make it more difficult for China to access the advanced semiconductors and chipmaking tools required for artificial intelligence. The rules are to prevent China’s chipmaking industry from supporting the country’s military capabilities. The criticism from China is that this has negatively impacted the chip industry and trade, but the US is prioritizing national security over market concerns. Possible conflict between China and Taiwan has also led major US technology companies to encourage friendshoring and moving production of advanced semiconductors to Mexico, away from Taiwan. China lacks the ability to respond similarly when it comes to chip production, but they are highly likely to seek avenues to punish the US, including through intellectual property theft and in competition for resources to make chips. Multinational tech companies should expect to see increased targeting from China in a variety of ways.
Ukraine Targets Russian Oil Refinery
A Ukrainian drone successfully struck Russia’s third-largest oil refinery Taneco in Nizhnekamsk on April 2, but authorities stated there was no critical damage to the refinery. Taneco produces 6.2% of Russia’s crude oil (17 million tons). This attack occurred approximately 800 miles from the front lines, and it was in response to Russia attacking Ukraine’s energy facilities. In the past month, Ukraine has increasingly attacked Russia’s oil industry, successfully shutting down about 14% of Russia’s total refining capacity. As war has continued for two years, Ukraine’s resources are being depleted, and these types of attacks are highly likely to increase because Ukraine will likely move towards a covert operations approach, attacking critical infrastructure in Russia. This is unlikely to directly impact corporations, but it will impact the global oil market and credibly affect inflation. If Ukraine is successful in such attacks, then Russia will likely increase its targeting of civilian infrastructure (beyond what it does now).
Wagner’s Disinformation Network Remains Active
According to new research from Google’s Mandiant intelligence unit, Russia-backed influence operations via the Wagner Group have continued despite the death of Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Prigozhin had a media empire known for disinformation campaigns, most infamously during the 2016 US presidential election. This disinformation network of troll farms still operates, and it is targeting audiences in the US, Europe, and Africa. The troll farms are extremely likely to try and influence the US election in November with pro-Russia and domestically divisive narratives, but it is unlikely that this will have the same impact as previous disinformation campaigns because social media companies are more attuned to the issue. However, the disinformation campaigns in Africa will be especially important as the troll farms are spreading anti-Western messaging. While no single disinformation campaign will alter geopolitics, these campaigns are part of Russia’s overall strategy to turn African nations (particularly those in the Sahel) towards them and away from the West, and they are more likely to be successful because of the hostility towards Western governments that already exists there.
DOD Releases First Cyber Strategy for DIB
The US Department of Defense released its first cybersecurity strategy for protecting the defense industrial base (DIB). The DIB constitutes those resources and companies needed for the production of military weapons and technology, and it encompasses everything from semiconductors to missiles. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said about the strategy, “As our adversaries continuously seek information about U.S. capabilities, the Department, in coordination with the DIB, must remain resilient against these attacks and succeed through teamwork to defend the Nation.” This is a major change in the US government’s approach to the DIB, but it will likely be a positive move to improve protection and resiliency even with the likely regulations. The DIB includes hundreds of thousands of entities, and standardization across the DIB will likely increase their ability to recover from a cyberattack. Importantly, most of the entities in the DIB are private corporations, which means there will likely be debate on the extent of acceptable regulations for cybersecurity. However, most members of the DIB must accept more regulations than other types of government contractors, and they are therefore less likely to be disrupted.
Bridge Collapse Will Increase Inflation
The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore that happened after the container ship DALI struck the base will likely have significant negative economic impacts on the US due to the area being one of America’s busiest ports. The Port of Baltimore is an important access point for highways and railways, and Key bridge was a critical hub for shipping along the East Cost of the US as part of the I-695 corridor, which is a link in the I-95 network. As such, there will be significant logistical challenges stemming from the collapse and likely cause delays in freight movements. This will lead to higher costs for shipping and transportation, which will then increase inflation. While shipping companies are rerouting their ships and the port is allowing smaller vessels through, this will not be enough to compensate for the problems in the port. It will likely take several years to make the port fully operational again, and during that time supply chains will be disrupted, and prices will increase.
European Inflation Decreases Slightly
Europe experienced a small drop in inflation in March, which was desperately needed by those in the Eurozone. Germany has already experienced a recession, so inflation creeping down to the 2% target will be important for the future of the European Central Bank’s policies. Inflation dropped to 2.4% (a reduction of 0.2% from February), but the ECB is extremely unlikely to cut rates at their next meeting. The earliest that rates will be cut will be at the June meeting. Europe is struggling to recover financially from the Covid pandemic, and higher interest rates that are needed to reduce inflation also have general negative economic impacts. Therefore, the sooner the ECB can cut rates the more quickly Europe can try to recover. Businesses should take this as a positive indicator for European markets over the medium term.
WINEP Creates Interactive IS Map
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) has released a novel map tracking Islamic State activity, showing a strong presence in West Africa, East Africa, Pakistan, and the Middle East. According to WINEP, “The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity Interactive Map provides a novel, accessible way to understand the Islamic State’s global reach and activities, offering a clearer illustration than text alone could do. It also moves beyond a traditional scholarly focus on attack data, offering content from IS media, designations, and legal cases.” This will be an extremely helpful tool for security professionals and analysts focused on transnational terrorism. Example screenshot below.
"In a deterministic universe, every step can be perceived as the inevitable consequence of the step before."
- Brian Greene
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