08 August 2024
This Week:
UK Anti-immigration Protests
Catalan Independence Leader to Return from Exile
Protesters Force Prime Minister to Resign in Bangladesh
Pro-Russia Protests in Nigeria
Newell Brands Relocates Production Amid Tariff Uncertainty
US Personnel Injured in Rocket Attack in Iraq
New Hamas Leader
Washington Institute New Data Source on Iranian External Operations
See previous editions of P&M here
UK Anti-immigration Protests
Anti-immigration protests in the UK have escalated into violent confrontations with police and widespread unrest in several cities across the UK. Protesters targeted various locations, including hotels housing asylum seekers, mosques, and businesses owned by ethnic minorities. The protests were triggered by misinformation that falsely linked a mass stabbing attack targeting a children’s dance class in Southport to a radical Islamist migrant who had entered Britain illegally. Further protests are planned in the coming days.
The protests lack formal leadership and are being organised on social media and messaging platforms by individuals connected to decentralised far-right networks online. Prominent influencers such as Stephen Yaxley-Lennon (also known as Tommy Robinson), as well as less well known but important figures in the British far-right are playing an important role and more extreme groups, such as the neo-Nazi Patriotic Alternative (PA), are also involved.
The protests stem from a mix of frustration over perceived government failures on immigration, opportunistic criminality such as looting, and far-right exploitation to incite anti-government sentiment and support for their causes. Protests are expected to continue for at least the next two weeks, but their frequency is likely to decrease gradually as police make arrests and prosecutions.
The protests will primarily occur in urban centres but may also target hotels believed to house immigrants and asylum seekers, businesses owned by ethnic minorities, and other entities perceived as benefiting from or supporting immigration, such as solicitors, visa services, and NGOs.
Social media companies will face increased public scrutiny and government pressure to control the spread of information online, posing reputational risks. They may be asked to remove content or ban individuals/suspend accounts, which may trigger threats against them. Statements from businesses will also be heavily scrutinised. Companies that speak out against the protests may face criticism, while those that remain silent could also be criticised, further increasing reputational risks.
Catalan Independence Leader to Return from Exile
Former president of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, has returned to Spain after spending several years in exile for organizing the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, considered illegal by the Spanish government. Puigdemont appeared at an event organized by his political party, Together for Catalonia (Junts), near Barcelona’s regional parliament building. Puigdemont's return threatens to complicate a deal brokered after months of deadlock between Salvador Illa’s Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) and the other main Catalan separatist party, the left-wing Esquerra Republicana (ERC). Illa has just enough support in Catalonia’s parliament to become the next regional president.
It is unclear if he intends to remain in Spain, but Puigdemont faces several charges related to the 2017 referendum and protests are very likely if Spanish police arrest him. There was significant unrest the last time Catalan independence leaders were arrested. In October 2019, the Spanish Supreme Court sentenced nine Catalan separatist leaders to lengthy prison terms for their roles in the 2017 Catalan independence referendum, which had been declared illegal by the Spanish government. The verdict sparked widespread protests across Catalonia. Major cities like Barcelona saw large-scale demonstrations, some of which escalated into violent clashes with the police. Protesters blocked roads, occupied public spaces, and disrupted transportation services, including airports and train stations. The unrest lasted for several days.
A contentious amnesty bill, crafted by Spain’s Socialist-led coalition government, could potentially clear Puigdemont and hundreds of other supporters of Catalan independence of any wrongdoing in the illegal 2017 ballot. However, the bill, approved by Spain’s parliament earlier this year, is being challenged by the Supreme Court, leaving uncertainty about which crimes would be pardoned.
Protesters Force Prime Minister to Resign in Bangladesh
Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and fled the country after several weeks of violent protests. More than 300 people were killed during the unrest. Initially led by students, the protests demanded the removal of a quota system that reserved 30% of government jobs for the families of people who fought for independence from Pakistan in 1971. The protests then developed into broader calls for Hasina's resignation, fair elections, economic reforms to address rising prices and unemployment, and an end to human rights abuses, including the suppression of free speech and political dissent. Parliament has been dissolved. Although the military initially announced it had taken control, Muhammad Yunus will head an interim government until elections can be held. The constitution stipulates that elections must take place within 90 days of parliament’s dissolution.
Pro-Russia Protests in Nigeria
In Nigeria, protesters in the northwest states of Kano and Kaduna waved Russian flags, chanted pro-Putin slogans, and called for a military takeover. These demonstrations were part of broader protests against economic reforms, including the partial removal of petrol and electricity subsidies, currency devaluation, and high inflation. Protesters believe that the cost-of-living crisis results from reforms dictated to President Tinubu by Western institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.
Initially youth-led, the protests in Nigeria that began on August 1 were inspired by similar demonstrations in Kenya against economic reforms, which were also blamed on the IMF. This sentiment reflects broader grievances seen in other regions, where international financial institutions are viewed as tools of Western economic dominance and colonial agendas, contributing to economic inequality and stifling local development through austerity measures that favor international creditors at the expense of the local population.
Additionally, the protests in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, come amid increased Western concerns over Russian security ties with the region, including countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, where military leaders have seized power in coups. The recent regime changes in West Africa have pushed the US, France, and the UN out of the region in favor of Russia and China.
Newell Brands Relocates Production Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Newell Brands, the maker of Sharpie pens, is relocating production from China due to tariff uncertainties. The company is moving its kitchen appliance manufacturing to Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, while its writing business has been shifted to Tennessee. These changes come as both U.S. political parties discuss potential future tariffs on Chinese imports. Newell CEO Chris Peterson emphasized the importance of reducing dependency on China and automating U.S. manufacturing to mitigate risks and manage costs effectively. Peterson noted that Newell's efforts are part of a broader strategy to decrease the company's exposure to Chinese manufacturing, which has dropped from 35% five years ago to a projected 10% by the end of next year. More companies are likely to follow suit due to tariffs.
U.S. Personnel Injured in Rocket Attack in Iraq
At least five U.S. personnel were injured in a rocket attack on the Ain al-Assad airbase in western Iraq on August 6, 2024. The attack involved two Katyusha rockets, which landed inside the base. The injured included five U.S. service members and two contractors. This incident is part of an uptick in attacks by Iranian-backed militias on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. The U.S. government has also deployed additional military forces to the Middle East in anticipation of retaliatory attacks for Israel's assassination of senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.
New Hamas Leader
Hamas has announced the appointment of Yahya Sinwar as their new leader, following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week. Sinwar, believed to be one of the planners of the October 7 attack against Israel, is based in Gaza and has not been seen in public since the attack. He is considered a hardliner who is closer to Iran than to the Gulf and Arab countries.
The merging of Hamas's political and military wings under Sinwar indicates that Hamas intends to revert more towards its original ideology, set out in its charter published in 1988, which calls for the destruction of Israel. If Sinwar is not assassinated or replaced, his closeness to Iran over countries like Egypt and Qatar, who often act as mediators between Israel and Hamas, means that Hamas is likely to be more difficult to contain in the future.
In the short term, Hamas may choose to continue fighting to keep Israel engaged in the war in Gaza, causing further international isolation and economic damage to Israel. It may also calculate that the longer it fights, the greater the chance that Hezbollah and Iran will enter the conflict, furthering its own aims. Iran's response to Haniyeh's assassination will be important in this scenario. The alternative is that Hamas will enter into a ceasefire agreement, which it can use to rearm and recruit. However, a ceasefire likely depends on Israel's assessment of the damage it has caused to Hamas.
Washington Institute New Data Source on Iranian External Operations
The Washington Institute has released an interactive map and timeline of Iranian external operations around the world. It is the "largest unclassified and complimentary information source on the Islamic Republic’s efforts to carry out assassinations, abductions, kidnappings, surveillance activities, and intimidation plots worldwide."
"Days are where we live. They come, they wake us, time and time over. They are to be happy in: Where can we live but days?"
- Philip Larkin
If you enjoyed this newsletter why not sign up to receive it by email
© Copyright. All rights reserved.
We need your consent to load the translations
We use a third-party service to translate the website content that may collect data about your activity. Please review the details in the privacy policy and accept the service to view the translations.