NATO/EU Condemn Russian Hybrid Operations

NATO and the EU have alleged that Russia is engaging in hybrid operations against them, and they have condemned the sabotage tactics. The North Atlantic Council stated that they were “deeply concerned about recent malign activities on Allied territory, including those resulting in the investigation and charging of multiple individuals in connection with hostile state activity.” The accusations include “sabotage, acts of violence, cyber and electronic interference, disinformation campaigns, and other hybrid operations” against member countries in both international organizations. 
 

They are particularly concerned about APT28 (Fancy Bear), which is connected to Russia’s military intelligence (GRU). This advanced persistent threat actor has been associated with cyberattacks against German political parties, the Czech Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and other national government agencies in Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Sweden. Besides NATO’s concern about APT28, the UK, US, and Australia have also raised concerns about the cybercrime gang LockBit. The countries unmasked the Russian leader of the group (Dmitry Khoroshev) and have sanctioned his assets. Despite the UK’s National Crime Agency shutting down LockBit’s website in February 2024, the extortion gang’s darknet site has resurrected, demonstrating the difficulty and complexity of neutralizing these targets.
 

NATO has pledged to respond to these hybrid operations, but this raises important questions on the customary laws of war and self-defense under international law. The central question is whether or not these hybrid operations are “acts of war” that could draw NATO into the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The attacks by APT28 are often against governments supportive against Ukraine (though not always), and NATO could make the case that Russia’s actions would trigger their right to self-defense and collective security. This scenario remains extremely unlikely because NATO does not want to directly intervene in the conflict, which would be devastating to the continent. However, they will have to carefully measure their response so as not to escalate to a full-scale cyberwar with Russia. Though extremely unlikely, if that were to happen, then there would be significant collateral damage to corporations as critical infrastructure would be targeted along with direct attacks against companies.

Far-Right/Right-Wing Parties Likely to Gain in EU Elections

New polling shows a significant increase in support for far-right parties in the EU elections taking place on June 6-9, but they are still unlikely to end up with sufficient votes for a majority. Right-wing parties are represented by the Identity and Democracy group, which includes the National Rally of France and AfD of Germany. The main parties are the EPP (center-right), Socialists and Democrats (left-wing), and Renew Europe (centrist), and member countries will select 720 lawmakers for the European Parliament. If the polling is correct, then Europe’s far right will have more influence in EU politics, which could impact regulations and policies. This is especially true if the EPP decides to collaborate with right-wing parties to prevent electoral losses elsewhere. 

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen is a member of the EPP, and she has ruled out working with far-right parties sympathetic to Putin. Yet von der Leyen has indicated she is willing to work with the anti-Putin right-wing bloc European Conservatives and Reformists (led by Italian PM Meloni). While far right and right-wing parties will likely gain in this election, more importantly it will be an indicator for the trend of European politics. Those parties have gained support in places like France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Hungary, and Poland, and if the parties perform well, then that will likely force major center-right parties in Europe to move further to the right to protect their political positions. In addition, how the mainstream parties respond to an increase in right-wing votes will indicate how national parties are likely to work with far right and right-wing parties in national governments.

Antifa Sabotage Law Enforcement

A group operating under the Antifa umbrella engaged in a sabotage attack against Portland Police, setting fire to 15 training vehicles in a “preemptive May Day attack” on law enforcement to prevent police officers from disturbing the pro-Palestinian encampment at Portland State University. The group calling itself Rachel Corrie’s Ghost Brigade advocated further violence on behalf of Palestinians on the Antifa-related blog Rose City Counter-Info, "We call for more actions to avenge Palestinians and the brutalized students at PSU and beyond!...Let ten million cop cars burn!" The group is named for a pro-Palestinian activist who died when she put herself in the path of a bulldozer in Rafah in 2003. 

Portland is not the only city to experience violence. Police have arrested almost 2,500 people at pro-Palestinian protests at college campuses across the United States, and there has been a significant increase an anti-Semitic incidents across the country as well. A singular sabotage attack against law enforcement does not indicate that there will be a broader more violent anti-Israel/pro-Palestine campaign. However, this incident is important to track because if there are further attacks outside of Portland, then it will become an indicator that a larger trend is taking place.

NVIDIA and MITRE Bring GPUs to the Government

Semiconductor company NVIDIA is working with the research organization MITRE to use the former’s DGX SuperPOD (an AI-specific data center platform with 256 GPUs) to help the US federal government with its computing research needs. The platform will be hosted at MITRE’s McLean location with the virtual sandbox being hosted on the cloud. According to NVIDIA, “The federal government generally lacks that AI infrastructure, which is required to do the work that needs to be done with respect to building out AI applications and getting AI into operations, they generally lack the infrastructure.” This partnership will help six federally funded research centers, and it will significantly advance the government’s AI capabilities. Importantly, this demonstrates the critical importance of the private sector in the “military-Internet complex” in which technology companies and research organizations provide the backbone for government capabilities. For geopolitical analysis, this means that understanding the role and resources of technology companies will directly correlate with a country’s power projection capabilities.

Indian Espionage Indicates Great Power Pursuit

Over the past decade, India has taken a few strategic steps to increase its position as a potential great power and securing its interests by intervening in the affairs of other countries. However, the increase in foreign espionage by India strongly indicates that they will be projecting power more significantly in the medium term. Australia has reported that Indian spies were caught stealing defense and trade secrets while also monitoring the Indian diaspora. That last part is what matters for geopolitical analysis. India has the largest diaspora group in the world (18 million people), primarily of high-skill laborers and politically influential groups. Remittances from this diaspora were $125 billion in 2023 alone. Prime Minister Modi attempted to connect with the diaspora during his foreign travels, and he sought to get the diaspora to support India’s interests. Although that does not mean there are not problems as Muslim, Christian, and secular Indians in the diaspora overwhelmingly disapprove of Modi, and there have been accusations of assassinations. India is an important ally to the West to balance against China, and Western governments are highly likely to respond differently to India’s power projection than they did to China because they are seeking that security partnership. India and Modi’s continued use of espionage and other tactics will determine whether the West begins to perceive India as a threat or potential peer competitor, which could derail India’s strategic objectives.

US Navy Fails to Create Drone Fleet

According to recent interviews with defense officials and corporate leaders, the US Navy has failed to create an effective fleet of unmanned surface vessels (USVs or sea drones) because of the Pentagon’s obsession with big shipbuilding projects. For years, the US Navy has hesitated to focus on sea drones, but the biggest impediment is the DoD’s budget process that still prioritizes large ships and submarines (focusing on legacy defense contractors rather than innovative startups). Sea drones have become a critical part of naval operations as seen in the Russo-Ukrainian War where deployed remote-controlled sea drones have sunk multiple Russian frigates and minesweepers during the war. Terrorists like the Houthis have also utilized similar vessels against commercial ships in the Red Sea. Yet this is most important because of the potential war with China, which is increasing its naval power projection capabilities in the Pacific. Modern strategists have delineated the desperate need for USVs in the Indo-Pacific to contain China’s aggression towards Taiwan. Without a sea drone fleet, the US Navy would fail in a naval war against China because of USVs enhanced tactical capabilities. This primarily matters for geopolitics because drone forces must be incorporated into military analysis and net assessments, and analysts will need to use such calculations to determine balance of power and deterrence capabilities. Currently, the US is losing its comparative advantage in the sea drone space, and this is likely to upset the status quo in the Indo-Pacific if does not change.

Shipping Still Negatively Impacted by Houthis

Maersk, the Danish shipping company, forecasts that disruptions to the Red Sea shipping route will reduce the industry’s capacity between Europe and Asia between 15-20% for Q2 because shipping companies have diverted vessels around southern Africa’s Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks by Houthi terrorists. Due to the change in routes, fuel costs are now 40% higher per journey. According to the company, attacks are reaching further offshore, so this “has forced our vessels to lengthen their journey further, resulting in additional time and costs to get your cargo to its destination for the time being.” This problem stems from the Houthis’ support for Hamas in the war in Gaza, and it highlights that geopolitical risks in one area can impact risks in another. In addition, the Houthi conflict is changing in Yemen that is likely to make them more violent. The Houthis have joined with al-Qaeda forces in southern Yemen, and this will increase their capabilities for attacks on shipping vessels. Over the last few weeks there have been fewer attacks because the Houthis were running out of ammunition, but that will likely change with the new alliance.