Israel Prepares for Rafah Offensive

Israel is highly likely to start the Rafah offensive by the end of May, which is the last major stronghold of the terrorist organization Hamas, but it is also housing a significant number of internally displaced Palestinians. Prime Minister Netanyahu has specifically pledged to the US that he will start the attack, and this is part of his goal of “total victory.” As he stated, “The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question.” When Israel moves forward on this operation, there will be a high number of civilian deaths from both collateral damage and incidental risks. Foreign leaders have tried to dissuade Israel from attacking Rafah, but they have been unsuccessful in their endeavors.

The US said it would only support such an offensive if Israel had an evacuation plan for civilians. Different lawyers and legal institutions are claiming that Israel is violating international law, but the International Court of Justice mostly rejected those claims (though they did not completely dismiss the case from Nicaragua). The prosecutor’s office of the International Criminal Court (ICC) is under pressure to issue arrest warrants for senior Israeli officials connected to the conflict, including Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Chief of the General Staff Herzi Halevi. [Neither the US nor Israel recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction.]

Netanyahu’s position on Rafah will likely give Israel a stronger negotiating position when ceasefire negotiations become serious, particularly because his government will collapse if he does not follow through. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich both threatened to pull out of government if the offensive did not happen. Smotrich specifically said that a “government that submits to international pressure, stops the war in the middle, avoids immediate entry into Rafah, and returns to Egyptian mediation proposals that leave Hamas existing in any configuration will at that moment lose its right to exist.” Hamas is currently considering a deal that would exchange 33 Israeli hostages for Palestinians prisoners and a 40-day truce. Discussions between global leaders took place at the World Economic Forum on April 29, and US Secretary of State Blinken blamed Hamas for the lack of a ceasefire because the terrorist group refuses to change its position on hostages.

If Israel moves forward with the Rafah offensive, then they are highly likely to start winding down operations in Gaza. Such an offensive would likely dismantle Hamas infrastructure, and then Israel will be more likely negotiate on a ceasefire. However, the offensive will have broader political and security implications for Western governments. First, there will be major protests in cities across the US and Europe, with some activists highly likely to engage in violent protests. Second, countries that currently support Israel are likely to start putting significant pressure on them to end the conflict. Finally, the offensive is highly likely to inspire terrorism in the West by lone actors who want to avenge Palestinians.

Russia Prepares for New Offensive

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that the Russian army is likely planning a new offensive against Ukraine, but there is not a strong indication of where the Russian attack will be concentrated. Perhaps, Russia has not decided where they plan to attack next, but they likely want to renew an offensive before the US funds and military aid from the recently passed bill can be dispersed. Russia has also started increasing its own production of weapons to mitigate the allocation of resources from the US. ISW determined that the stabilization efforts by Russia in Avdiivka indicate that they will either go north around the Temporal Ravine or west to Pokrovsk.

The allocation of resources by the US and renewed offensive from Russia strongly indicate that the stalemate in Ukraine will continue for the foreseeable future. Such a war of attrition, though, will help Ukraine in the long term as long as the US and EU are willing to continue funding the country. Russia relies on overwhelming forces to wear down its enemies, which means the longer Ukraine can hold out the far more likely Russia will deplete its limited resources. However, the conflict continues to impact the region and companies, not just Ukraine itself. For example, Baltic nations are claiming that there are disruptions to commercial flights in the region from Russian GPS jamming. Both Estonia and Lithuania hold that the GPS jamming is a “deliberate hybrid attack,” and they are seeking redresses at the EU and NATO. Direct intervention by NATO countries remains extremely unlikely, but that does not mean there will not be continued impacts to everything from agriculture to aerospace.

Students Engage in Massive Anti-Israel Protests

Left-wing students are engaging in anti-Israel protests and occupations on college campuses throughout the United States, but some of the protests are expanding to Europe and the Middle East as well. More than 200 protestors were arrested at several universities on April 27, including Northeastern University, Arizona State University, Indiana University and Washington University in St. Louis. These protests have two major implications. First, several universities are highly likely to start using more forceful efforts to quell the protests and remove occupying students, and this will lead to backlash by left-wing activists. Second, this strongly indicates that the Democrats will have problems with left-wing activists and students at the convention, and there are likely to be protests there akin to the 1960s. Corporations will want to take note of these protests because students willing to engage in such protests are likely to take those attitudes into the workforce, and it will create both insider threat risks and reputational risks. 

Tennessee Factory Officially Unionizes

In a major win for the labor movement, the National Labor Relations Board has certified the vote of a Volkswagen factory in Tennessee to unionize with the United Auto Workers (UAW). Previously, the workers rejected unionization in 2014 and 2019, and there are likely two reasons that they chose to unionize now. Inflation has led to increases in the cost of all consumer goods, and wages have not kept up with inflation. Also, in 2023 Detroit’s automakers capitulated to the unions following a series of strikes, and the Volkswagen factory likely saw this as a positive step. Republican governors in the South opposed the unionization because they said it would lead to job losses. This is an indicator of major economic changes because the American South has a complicated history with unions. In Europe, unions became a critical component of their understanding of capitalism (with the exception of the UK in the 1970s), but in the US unions were deeply connected to communism. If Southern workers are willing to unionize, then this is a strong indicator that there are major economic problems for the working class that will impact political risks. This does not mean that they will start voting for Democrats, but it does indicate they will turn against free market capitalism.

Poll Indicates Americans Don’t Trust TikTok

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that 58% of respondents agreed with the statement that China uses TikTok to “influence American political opinion.” Only 13% of respondents disagreed with the rest unsure. TikTok claims that it has strong data security and does not share data with the Chinese government, but there is a significant amount of evidence that is not the case. This poll is an indicator that the majority of Americans will accept the possible ban of TikTok should ByteDance fail to divest from the company. President Biden signed legislation in April 2024 that gave ByteDance 270 days to divest TikTok’s US assets or face a ban. Interestingly, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to think China uses the app to influence opinions, and that shows a break in how conservatives and liberals view influence operations. TikTok is used by a major portion of Millennials and Gen Z, and this group is majority Democrat, which could explain why Democrats have a slightly more positive view of the app. Overall, though, this is an important case in how the US and Europe will battle influence operations and disinformation, and part of that battle could include banning social media owned by authoritarians.

Germany Starts Trial for Right-Wing Terrorists

Germany has started the trial of nine members of the German Reichsbuerger (Citizens of the Reich), a far-right extremist group who allegedly planned to overthrow the government. There is a broad increase in right-wing terrorism in the US and Europe, and such cases are highly likely to increase over the coming years. The rise in right-wing terrorism poses incidental risks, but corporations that focus on certain social causes increase the likelihood of becoming targets. It also is an indicator of broader dissatisfaction with Western governments and cultural issues that transcend a particular country. Right-wing groups like Reichsbuerger are likely to seek such coups in other countries, though they are extremely unlikely to be successful.

Summer Likely to Be Hotter

The meteorological phenomenon known as El Niño will be absent for the summer 2024, and this means that there will be above-average temperatures throughout the United States. Now, a La Niña event is developing. El Niño is a natural climate pattern of warm ocean water in the equatorial Pacific, and La Niña is when the water is cooler than average. Previous years (2016 and 2020) that had a weak El Niño going into a La Niña in the summer caused extremely high temperatures and a high number of hurricanes. The meteorological risks are clear with higher temperatures, such as wildfires that will disrupt travel and cause health risks, and hurricanes pose major risks to physical infrastructure and oil markets. In addition, higher temperatures increase the risk of violent protests and crime, and this election year is already on the precipice of violent protests over issues like Israel (see above).

Verizon Releases Annual Data Breach Report

Verizon has released its Data Breach Investigations Report (DBIR) for 2024 with critical data for security professionals. According to the report, ransomware and other such extortion attacks accounted for 32% of breaches in 2023, and importantly, exploitation of vulnerabilities as an initial access point tripled compared to 2022 (rising to 14% of breaches). The report notes, "This spike was driven primarily by the increasing frequency of attacks targeting vulnerabilities on unpatched systems and devices (zero-day vulnerabilities) by ransomware actors. The MOVEit software breach was one of the largest drivers of these cyberattacks, first in the education sector and later spreading to finance and insurance industries." Furthermore, "[m]ost breaches (68%), whether they include a third party or not, involve a non-malicious human element, which refers to a person making an error or falling prey to a social engineering attack."