Far-right National Rally Lead in First Round of French Elections

In the first round of France's parliamentary elections, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) achieved a significant lead, with approximately 33% of the vote ahead of the New Popular Front with around 28%. The follows the party's strong performance in the European Parliament elections, which prompted President Emmanuel Macron to call for snap elections in an attempt to regain political stability and counter the far-right's momentum. Macron's Ensemble finished the first round in third place with only 20% of the vote.

For the second round of voting on July 7, strategic alliances will be crucial. Macron's centrist Ensemble coalition is seeking support from left-leaning and moderate voters to counter the RN's rise. More than 200 candidates have agreed to pull out of local contests to clear the path for whoever was best placed to defeat the RN runner in their voting district. This will limit the chances of the RN winning an outright majority, but also increases the likelihood of a weak coalition government emerging.

Even if the RN wins the most seats it may struggle to form a government unless it gets near to the 289 seats (polling suggests they will win 230-280 seats) required for a majority when it can rely on support from independent candidates. A victory for the National Rally would mark the first time the far-right has gained a majority in the lower house of parliament and would alter domestic policy on immigration, the economy and France's relationship with the European Union, putting parliament in direct confrontation with President Macron's pro-EU stance. Regardless of the result the strong performance of the RN follows the recent pattern of voting in Europe where far-right parties are performing strongly and will increase political instability in the longer-term.

Kenya Protesters Call for Ruto to Resign

The protests in Kenya, initially triggered by opposition to President William Ruto's proposed tax reforms, have evolved into broader calls for his resignation. The controversial finance bill, which included several tax hikes aimed at reducing the national debt, led to widespread unrest, violent clashes, and looting resulting in over 20 deaths and numerous injuries. In response, Ruto announced that he would not sign the tax bill into law. Despite the concession, protesters are now demanding Ruto's resignation, citing his failure to address the rising cost of living and corruption. The change in protester demands is indicative of momentum in the protests and may lead to an escalation. 

China's New Smartphone Inspections and Espionage Law

China has recently enacted significant updates to its counter-espionage law, which came into effect on July 1, 2023. The revised law broadens the definition of espionage to include the handling of any documents, data, materials, or items related to national security interests, and grants Chinese authorities extensive powers to inspect electronic devices without the need for a warrant or ongoing criminal investigation. This change has reportedly already led to increased inspections at borders, with reports of border guards checking travelers' smartphones for sensitive content, such as encrypted messaging apps like Signal or Telegram​. Ordinary business activities could now be interpreted as espionage, raising the risk of arbitrary detentions and the seizure of sensitive business information.

China and Philippines Seek De-escalation in the South China Sea

This week, China and the Philippines have agreed to de-escalate tensions in the South China Sea following a series of maritime incidents. During the 8th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea held in Shanghai, both sides committed to improving maritime communication mechanisms to prevent future confrontations and miscalculations. The discussions were described as frank and productive, with a mutual commitment to addressing any incidents diplomatically. The issue is not resolved and further confrontations are likely, but an escalation is now less likely in the near-term.

Iran Presidential Election Second Round

The second round of Iran's presidential election is set to take place on July 5, 2024. The runoff is between reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili.  The runoff follows an inconclusive first round held on June 28, marked by a record-low voter turnout of just 40%.

Masoud Pezeshkian previously served as Iran's health minister. His campaign focuses on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, advocating for sanctions relief to improve the Iranian economy and end the country's international isolation. Pezeshkian has also taken a strong stance on social issues, publicly criticizing mandatory hijab laws and the government's handling of human rights. 

Saeed Jalili is a former nuclear negotiator and staunch opponent of the West, Jalili's campaign emphasizes a rigid, uncompromising stance on Iran's nuclear program and a continuation of conservative social policies. He is known for his anti-Western rhetoric and has strong support from Iran's ultraconservative base. Jalili’s political career includes significant roles in the Supreme National Security Council and close ties with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which bolster his position within the regime​.

Turnout for the second round could increase if moderate voters move to block Jalili but a significant increase is unlikely. Regardless of who wins the President has a limited mandate with the most important policies decided by supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranian foreign and nuclear policy is unlikely to significantly change.

Shanghai Co-operation Organisation summit in Astana

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit is taking place in Astana, Kazakhstan on July 3-4, 2024. At the meeting, Belarus officially joined the SCO as a full member, reinforcing the organization's influence. Key issues discussed included addressing terrorism, separatism, and extremism, prompted by recent terrorist incidents involving SCO member states. Economic and energy cooperation were also central topics, with initiatives to boost regional connectivity and trade, such as the Middle Corridor project connecting Southeast Asia to Europe via Central Asia. Russian President Vladimir Putin called the SCO “one of the key pillars of a fair, multipolar world order,” and has also used recent visits to North Korea, Vietnam, and China underscore a significant strategic shift towards strengthening alliances in Asia. These visits are part of Russia's broader effort to foster a multipolar world and reduce Western influence through defense and economic partnerships with key Asian nations.