Inconclusive Elections in France
In the second round of the 2024 French parliamentary elections, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) emerged as the largest bloc, securing 188 seats. However, they fell short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble coalition finished second with 161 seats. The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, won 142 seats and did not achieve the projected gains following a strong first round performance. This was largely because of tactical voting by the NFP and Ensemble intended to block RN candidates, which resulted in the hung parliament. A period of protracted political instability and paralysis is likely as different factions attempt to form a government. This will delay economic and fiscal reforms likely damaging relations with the European Union. France's internal political instability will also be negative for EU stability, potentially making consensus more difficult on crucial issues like Ukraine, migration, and EU strategy with a potential Trump presidency in the US.
Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso form Alliance of Sahel States
At a summit in Niger the military-led states of Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso signed a treaty to formalize the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). They rejected rejoining the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) saying it did not provide adequate support against Islamist insurgencies and that it was influenced by former colonial powers, particularly France. It is likely that the AES will lead to increased instability over the medium term as each of the governments seek to create legitimacy and hold on to power. It also weakens ECOWAS creating significant disruption to the region’s trade and services flows. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso will also become increasingly isolated pushing them closer to security and economic ties with Russia and China. This will further weaken Western influence in West Africa.
Pressure on Biden to Withdraw as Presidential Candidate
Calls have increased for President Biden to step down as the Democrat nominee for this year’s election after a poor performance in the first debate with Donald Trump. Biden has vowed to continue but is under significant pressure from some Democrats and the media to step aside. Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker of America’s House of Representatives, said that “time is running short” for him to decide whether he will run. Also, the actor, George Clooney, who is an important Democrat fundraiser wrote in an opinion peace for the New York Times that Biden should not run. Pelosi and Clooney’s statements are likely to have an important effect on Democratic and public opinion about Biden’s ability to defeat Donald Trump in the election. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from early July found one in three Democrats think he should step aside. Biden’s performance at unscripted press events in the coming week will be under intense scrutiny and a perceived poor performance will make it increasingly likely that he will be forced to drop out from the election.
Orban meets Putin and Xi
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met Chinese President Xi Jinping this week after previously meeting Vladimir Putin in Russia. During the meeting with Putin, Orban called for a ceasefire in Ukraine, with Putin saying Ukraine should withdraw from territories claimed by Russia and not pursue joining NATO. In his meeting with Xi Jinping, Orban praised China as a "pillar of the new world order" and said he supported China's peace plan for Ukraine. The meetings were not sanctioned by the EU where Hungary currently holds the rotating presidency and Orban's visits undermine the EUs position on Ukraine and China, to which it is becoming increasingly hostile.
Israel-Hamas Peace Talks Restart
Ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas have restarted. According to media reports in the first phase Hamas will release 33 hostages, including all remaining female captives, men over 50, and those injured. In return, Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and withdraw forces from densely populated areas of Gaza. In the second phase an interim governance plan will be implemented, with neither Israel nor Hamas controlling Gaza. Instead, a US-supported security force, backed by moderate Arab allies and comprised of vetted Palestinian Authority supporters, will oversee the region. The final phase would involve Hamas releasing male IDF soldiers, the IDF fully withdrawing from Gaza, and the start of a multi-year reconstruction plan. It is unclear if a deal can be reached as Israel wants only a temporary pause in the fighting so that it can continue its objective of "destroying" Hamas. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recently said that 60% of Hamas fighters have been killed or wounded. Insight Forward has produced a report on post-war Israel’s politics, security, and economics, focusing on scenarios corporations can utilize to make informed decisions. Those interested should contact Insight Forward.
Australia Reports China State Sponsored Hacking Activity
The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) reported that Chinese state-sponsored hackers, specifically APT40, are behind extensive cyber espionage activities targeting Australian infrastructure. These activities, coordinated by the Chinese Ministry of State Security (MSS), have involved exploiting vulnerabilities in widely used software and compromising small-office/home-office devices to gain persistent access to networks. The ASD's findings align with reports from other Western intelligence agencies, highlighting a concerted effort by China to use cyber operations to advance its strategic interests and gather sensitive information from various countries.
Largest ever Compilation of Password Leaks
The "RockYou2021" password leak is the largest compilation of passwords ever disclosed, with 8.4 billion unique entries. Posted to a popular hacker forum, it includes passwords gathered from numerous past data breaches and therefore does not necessarily represent a new risk. However, threat actors can use the information from breach compilations to conduct password dictionary and password spraying attacks.
“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
- Lao Tzu
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