01 August 2024
This Week:
Maduro Re-elected, Causes Legitimacy Crisis
Israel Neutralizes Hamas and Hezbollah Leaders
Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates
Russian Mercenaries Attacked by Tuareg Rebels
US Supports Human Rights in Cybercrime Treaty
United States Announces Military Aid for Philippines
Congressional Report Criticizes Pentagon Strategy
See previous editions of P&M here
Maduro Reelected, Causes Legitimacy Crisis
Protesters in Venezuela took to the streets on July 30, demanding President Nicolas Maduro concede defeat to opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez after the July 29th disputed election. The protests, which the government labeled as a coup attempt, followed the electoral authority's announcement that Maduro won a third term with 51% of the vote. The opposition, claiming the election was rigged, asserts Gonzalez received more than double the votes Maduro did based on 90% of the accessible vote tallies. Eleven people have died in election-related incidents, and the Carter Center declared the election undemocratic. Both Maduro and his ally, Jorge Rodriguez, accused Gonzalez and opposition leader Maria Corina Machado of inciting post-election violence. Maduro, alleging attacks on the electoral system, sought assistance from China and Russia, while the defense minister claimed a coup was underway.
Maduro's previous terms have seen economic collapse and mass migration. The opposition, facing registration obstacles and a biased election process, appears to have limited options as the military continues to support Maduro. Amid ongoing protests, with opposition demonstrators clashing with security forces and pro-Maduro supporters celebrating, many Venezuelans are considering leaving the country. Maduro's loss of legitimacy has increased the ruling coalition's vulnerability and may lead to more repression of the opposition and civil society. Information censorship before the elections signaled a restriction of civic space. The opposition, led by Machado, aims to exploit divisions within the ruling coalition and address public discontent without provoking violent repression. Internationally, Maduro faces isolation from Latin American democracies, the United States, and Europe. Former allies like Brazil and Colombia have demanded election transparency. The United States may need to reconsider its agreements with Qatar, focusing on Chavismo's exit from power. The next six months are expected to be a period of intense conflict in Venezuela.
Israel Neutralizes Hamas and Hezbollah Leaders
On July 30, Israel neutralized Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Appointed as Hamas' top leader in 2017, Haniyeh operated from Turkey and Qatar, engaging in ceasefire negotiations with Israel and maintaining relations with Iran. Despite his strong rhetoric, many diplomats viewed him as a moderate compared to more hardline members of Hamas. He was vocal against normalization agreements between Arab states and Israel, especially following the October 7 attack by Hamas. His leadership included building ties with Iran and supporting military capabilities while navigating complex regional diplomacy.
A day earlier, Israel conducted an air strike on a southern suburb of Beirut, targeting and reportedly killing Fuad Shukr, a high-ranking Hezbollah commander. This strike was in response to a rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 people, mostly children. Hezbollah denies involvement in the Golan Heights attack and has not confirmed Shukr's death but acknowledges the building he was in was hit. Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the strike as "blatant Israeli aggression" and a violation of international law.
The Israeli Defense Forces have indicated that they do not anticipate an immediate significant response from Hezbollah and are cautious about escalating the conflict. Neither of these targeted killings are likely to expand the conflict in Gaza as Iran sees a wider regional war as harmful to the regime. However, they are highly likely to help Hezbollah engage in retaliatory action, but that will also likely fall short of a full-scale war. Hezbollah does not want the IDF to fully enter Lebanon, and they will only seek a broader war if they believe their existence is at stake.
Bank of Japan Raises Interest Rates
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has raised interest rates to their highest level in 15 years and outlined a plan to reduce its extensive bond-buying program. The rate hike, the largest since 2007, marks a significant shift from the BOJ's long-standing stimulus measures. This decision follows the end of eight years of negative interest rates and aims to phase out the previously aggressive monetary policies. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that further rate hikes could be possible depending on economic data, and the central bank is implementing a quantitative tightening plan that will cut monthly bond purchases in half by early 2026. This reduction will decrease the BOJ's balance sheet by up to 8%, moving away from the extensive bond-buying practices that began in 2013. The rate increase and tightening plans come as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in September, highlighting a stark contrast in monetary policies between Japan and other major economies. The yen strengthened following the BOJ's announcement, and short-term bond yields rose to 15-year highs. Despite recent inflationary pressures and a weak yen affecting the BOJ's projections, the central bank aims for a gradual adjustment to avoid market disruptions and manage Japan’s large public debt. The market was not entirely positive on this action as bond yields fell slightly, but expectations of inflation and a hawkish approach will help normalize monetary policy in Japan.
Russian Mercenaries Attacked by Tuareg Rebels
A recent battle in northern Mali resulted in significant casualties among Russian mercenaries and Malian soldiers. The attack, which occurred near the Algerian border, involved a coalition of Tuareg rebels and the al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin). The ambush reportedly killed up to 80 Russians, marking the worst loss for Russian paramilitaries in recent years. Videos from the scene show rebel fighters among the dead and captured individuals. Russian Telegram channels have reported high casualties and the involvement of notable figures, including military bloggers. There are several geopolitical implications for this battle. First, the incident represents a significant setback for Russian mercenary operations in Africa, highlighting the growing strength and coordination of militant groups in the region. Russia will likely have to expend more resources on the continent than expected because of security promises to the regimes it supports in the region. This also comes during a time when the Ukrainian war is consuming a large portion of their defense budget. Second, Ukrainian officials claimed that Kyiv provided intelligence to the militants, contributing to the successful ambush. If this is true, then it opens the possibility of the Ukraine war going global via proxy conflicts with Russia. Both Ukraine and its Western backers could find opportunities to harm Russian interests and waste the country’s dwindling resources outside of Ukraine, helping alleviate pressure there.
US Supports Human Rights in Cybercrime Treaty
As the final round of negotiations for a United Nations cybercrime treaty begins, the U.S. State Department has emphasized the need to ensure the treaty safeguards human rights. A statement signed by the U.S. and 40 other countries highlights concerns that the treaty could be misused for domestic and international repression, particularly against journalists, human rights defenders, and marginalized groups. The treaty’s draft, criticized by human rights advocates and technology companies, could potentially undermine digital freedom and privacy. Technology firms, including major players like Meta and Microsoft, argue that the treaty could jeopardize cybersecurity, compel individuals to reveal private information, and create criminal liabilities for cybersecurity professionals. Human rights organizations warn that the treaty could lead to increased surveillance and criminalization of activists and journalists, especially in countries with existing repressive cybercrime laws. They urge the inclusion of robust human rights protections in the final treaty to prevent these risks. Insight Forward has consistently discussed the balkanization of technology, and this treaty would further that problem. The majority of countries do not accept Western governments and corporations’ idea of “human rights,” and if those ideas are imposed on them, then they will not accept such a treaty. This will make it harder to defend against cybercrime, and the world will be increasingly split on their approach.
United States Announces Military Aid for Philippines
The United States announced $500 million in foreign military financing for the Philippines to modernize its armed forces, emphasizing cooperation on freedom of navigation and cybersecurity. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called the investment a "once-in-a-generation" opportunity, while Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. noted it would enhance the country's defense capabilities and deter aggression. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Austin highlighted shared concerns with the Philippines over China's actions in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Blinken praised a recent agreement between China and the Philippines to avoid clashes near the Second Thomas Shoal, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic resolutions. The U.S. also reaffirmed its support for the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty. Altogether, this is a positive indicator for greater stability in the region as China will likely assess the increased deterrence as a limitation on their ability to push into the South China Sea.
Congressional Report Criticizes Pentagon Strategy
A Congressionally mandated commission criticized the Pentagon’s National Defense Strategy, stating it underestimates threats from China, Russia, Iran, and rogue states, and fails to address their increasing convergence. The commission, led by Representatives Jane Harman and Eric Edelman, found the Pentagon underfunded and inadequately structured to handle current threats, recommending it be capable of fighting multiple wars simultaneously. The report emphasized the need to strengthen the defense industrial base and overhaul restrictive policies. The commission warned that the U.S. faces its most serious threats since 1945 and is unprepared for potential major conflicts. It proposed a "Multiple Theater Force Construct" to replace the current one-war strategy, acknowledging the likelihood of simultaneous conflicts involving alliances between U.S. adversaries. The commission highlighted the need for increased defense spending, criticizing past administrations and Congress for budgetary gridlock and lack of preparedness. It called for sustained leadership and a mindset shift across the government and among the public to address national security challenges effectively. Alone this report will not significantly change U.S. policy or funding, but should President Trump get elected, then his administration will focus on China as the biggest threat to America. That means it will likely be used by advisors to support larger defense budgets, and it shows potential Congressional support for a hawkish stand on China during the next administration.
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge."
- Stephen Hawking
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