13 June 2024

Right-wing Parties Win in EU Elections

The European parliamentary elections saw significant shifts across the continent that indicate a strong rightward change in the general political landscape. Right-wing and nationalist made notable gains, securing a record number of seats in the European Parliament, with strong showings in France, Italy, and Germany. Despite these gains, they will need to build a consensus to exert significant influence. In the election, France’s National Rally earned a third of the vote. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party, Brothers of Italy, gained significant ground, reinforcing her position in European politics (25% of the vote). Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s party secured a victory, bolstering Poland's influence in the EU, but Hungary lost out when Viktor Orbán’s party, Fidesz, experienced its worst results to date. However, the centrist European People’s Party (EPP) remained the largest single winner. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of centrist parties collaborating to counter extremist factions. Left-wing parties were the major losers as Liberal and Green groups lost seats and influence, with particularly large losses in Germany and France. The Greens face challenges in maintaining their climate agenda due to their major unpopularity (e.g., farmers’ protests).

 

There have been some political upheavals due to this election. President Emmanuel Macron called for new elections after his party suffered a significant defeat to Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, and Belgium Prime Minister Alexander De Croo resigned following his party’s poor performance. France’s electoral problems are a microcosm of what the rest of Europe is facing. The Republicans, a center-right party, has now called for an alliance with the right-wing National Rally, leading several lawmakers to threaten to resign. This alliance could help bring votes to National Rally as many French people are still uncomfortable with that party’s history. Another party likely to join in the coalition is Reconquête, of which Le Pen’s niece is a major figure. Right-wing, nationalist, and Euroskeptic parties are fragmented, though, preventing unified action. Notable divisions exist between major players like France's National Rally and Germany's Alternative for Germany. Overall, this shows broad dissatisfaction with the left-wing policies of most governments in Europe, particularly around regulations, immigration, and economic decline.

 

EU and US Increase Tech Trade Barriers

The European Commission will impose additional tariffs of up to 38.1% on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) starting in July 2024 to counter excessive subsidies, potentially provoking retaliation from Beijing. This move follows Washington’s decision to increase duties on Chinese EVs to 100%. The new EU tariffs will impact companies like BYD and SAIC, adding billions of euros in costs amid slowing demand and falling prices in the EU market, where Chinese EVs now hold an 8% market share. European automakers are concerned about the influx of cheaper Chinese EVs and the potential for Chinese retaliation, particularly against companies with significant sales in China, such as BMW. The EU aims to avoid a repeat of the solar panel industry collapse due to inadequate measures against Chinese imports. The European Commission’s investigation into Chinese EV subsidies could lead to five-year tariffs, affecting both non-cooperating and cooperating firms, including Tesla. European carmakers like Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW have expressed concerns about the negative effects of the tariffs, noting the importance of China for their sales. Economists predict the tariffs will reduce Chinese EV imports by 25%, but European production will partially offset this decrease. The potential for Chinese retaliation remains a critical concern.

 

 

 

 

Europe is not the only one implementing trade restrictions. The US government is set to announce expanded sanctions targeting semiconductor chips and other goods sold to Russia, focusing on third-party sellers in China. This move aims to hinder Russia's efforts to bypass Western sanctions amid its war against Ukraine. The expanded controls will now cover US-branded goods, not just those made in America, and will identify certain Hong Kong entities supplying goods to Russia. US officials are increasingly frustrated with China's growing trade with Russia, which helps Moscow sustain its military production. Deglobalization is occurring not only for economic reasons but also for security ones as well. Trade barriers like the EU and US are imposing will hasten the balkanization of technology, and protectionist measures by countries like Russia and China are extremely likely to follow.

 

Chiquita Found Liable For Funding Militia

A federal jury in Florida has ordered Chiquita Brands to pay $38.3 million to 16 family members of victims killed by a paramilitary group in Colombia, funded by the company during the country's civil war. This verdict is the first time Chiquita has been found liable in such cases in US courts, marking a significant legal precedent for holding US companies accountable for human rights abuses abroad. Chiquita argued it made payments out of fear for its employees' safety, but the jury's decision underscores accountability for supporting terrorism. If the verdict is upheld on appeal, then it will highly likely deter other companies from engaging with paramilitary groups in austere environments, and it could have negative long-term impacts on the security of corporations.

 

Tech Companies Help Protect Hospitals

The Biden administration, in collaboration with Microsoft and Google, has launched an initiative to enhance cybersecurity for rural hospitals. This joint effort aims to provide tailored cybersecurity advice, discounted security products, and funding for software migration to protect critical healthcare infrastructure. Rural hospitals, often facing financial constraints and lacking cybersecurity expertise, are vulnerable to cyberattacks that can disrupt patient care in communities where they are the primary healthcare providers. The initiative underscores the need for mandatory cybersecurity improvements across the healthcare sector to ensure reliable access to healthcare amidst increasing cyber threats. Healthcare facilities have particularly been targeted by ransomware gangs, and this has caused real-world physical harm to patients. Importantly, this demonstrates the needed role of corporations in broader security issues as the government does not have the resources and bandwidth to secure all types of facilities, even critical ones.

 

Houthi Terrorists Kidnap Aid workers

Yemen's Houthi terrorists recently claimed to have arrested members of an "American-Israeli spy network" and detained almost twenty UN staffers and aid workers from charities like Save the Children, Oxfam, and CARE. The terrorists accused the spy network of operating initially from the US Embassy in Sanaa, continuing its activities after the embassy's closure in 2015. The arrests coincide with heightened tensions over Houthi actions in Yemen, including targeting shipping in the Red Sea amid ongoing conflict and economic challenges. The Houthis likely did this as a power play, and it highlights the continued threat of Western connected organization in dangerous environments. The aid workers are likely to be convicted and executed because of the false allegations.

 

Baltimore Port Reopens After Bridge Collapse

The main shipping channel into Baltimore’s port has fully reopened after the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge on March 26. The bridge was blocked by wreckage after a container ship crashed into a supporting column, resulting in tragic fatalities. Crews worked tirelessly to remove 50,000 tons of debris from the Patapsco River, gradually reopening parts of the channel. The final reopening allows for two-way traffic, easing the impact on thousands of workers and businesses dependent on the port. A massive international effort involving numerous agencies facilitated the cleanup. This will likely have a positive impact on trade and the cost of goods in the US as that port was a critical entry point for trade and travel on the East Coast.

 

China and Pakistan Discuss CPEC Phase II

The visit of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to China this month marked a significant moment for bilateral relations, particularly focusing on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which is a $62 billion project that would connect Pakistan’s Gwadar Port with China’s Xinjiang region. During the visit, Pakistan and China unveiled plans to upgrade CPEC and initiate Phase II of this crucial initiative, aimed at enhancing connectivity, power projects, and economic zones along the corridor. Despite challenges such as security issues and financial constraints, both sides emphasized alignment with the Belt and Road Initiative and expanding cooperation in various sectors. China's support is pivotal as Pakistan seeks to address concerns over political stability, security, and financial sustainability, crucial for attracting further investments and securing international loans. China benefits not only economically, but it is further cementing is alliance with Pakistan against India; China often uses such projects to make countries indebted to them.

 

Privacy Bill Goes to Markup

The American Privacy Rights Act (APRA) will soon be facing markup, but the bill is facing criticism primarily due to its failure to establish a uniform national privacy standard. Critics argue that this deficiency will lead to confusion among consumers and disrupt economic growth by creating a patchwork of privacy laws across states (places like Washington and California already have privacy laws). APRA aims to streamline data privacy by superseding diverse state laws with a comprehensive federal standard, which proponents argue is crucial for consistency, especially in regulated sectors like banking and healthcare. However, concerns persist regarding weak provisions related to data brokers, including inadequate penalties for non-compliance and loopholes benefiting certain businesses. National legislation will be important to help both small and large corporations navigate the landscape, but if the US seeks to impose GDPR-like regulations nationally, then the technology sector will suffer extensively. Tech companies require data to function, but regulations like GDPR strangle access to that data, which is a critical reason Europe struggles to have an effective technology sector.

 

German Defense Minister Prepares for War

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius recently cautioned the German parliament about the need to prepare for potential conflict by 2029, citing increasing threats, particularly from Russia. He stressed the urgency of modernizing and expanding the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, to enhance defense capabilities in response to a volatile global environment. Additionally, Germany is revamping its wartime contingency plans with measures such as bolstering civil defense, securing critical infrastructure, and stockpiling essentials like food and medicine. These preemptive steps aim to reassure citizens amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Europe generally is unprepared for war as they insufficiently fund their militaries and lack any real power projection capabilities. The war in Ukraine changed this slightly, but it will take several years of much higher funding for European countries like Germany to have those capabilities. However, Europeans ideologically refuse to fund their militaries appropriately, and this will be an extremely difficult political battle to overcome.

“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.”

- Marie Curie

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