Russian Disinformation Campaigns in Europe

Recent research into disinformation has demonstrated new nefarious campaigns by authoritarian actors using AI, which will be critical to understand for the 2024 elections in the US and Europe. The "Pravda" disinformation network, attributed to Russia, is intensifying its efforts across all 27 EU countries ahead of the upcoming EU Parliament elections in June 2024. Operating through fake news websites, the network spreads false narratives, particularly regarding the conflict in Ukraine and critical political figures. Researchers have highlighted its use of artificial intelligence to churn out vast amounts of content, reminiscent of tactics observed before the US presidential election in 2016. The network's articles lack transparency, often linking to Telegram channels instead of journalists. This escalation underscores Russia's evolving disinformation strategies, aimed at destabilizing democratic processes and promoting extremism. With a surge in new Pravda websites detected in March 2024, concerns mount over Russia's interference capabilities, which now include the use of generative AI, posing challenges for detection and mitigation by authorities.

Concerning generative AI, OpenAI reported that threat actors associated with Russia, China, and Iran have utilized its tools for influence operations to generate various content types for campaigns aimed at social media manipulation. Despite fears surrounding the misuse of generative AI, the impact of these operations has been limited with most scoring low on influence metrics. Notable campaigns include those by Russian groups Bad Grammar and Doppelgänger as well as the Chinese group Spamouflage and the Iranian group IUVM. OpenAI's software prevented some malicious activities, though.

Besides politics, a recent report from Microsoft's threat intelligence unit reveals a covert influence campaign orchestrated by Russia to discredit the 2024 Olympics and instill fear of terrorism at the event. Employing tactics such as deepfake technology and fabricated threats, the campaign aims to tarnish the reputation of the International Olympic Committee and dissuade attendance. By impersonating news outlets and disseminating false information, the Russian actors seek to create a narrative of violence surrounding the Paris Games. This campaign mirrors historical efforts by the Soviet Union to undermine international competitions when unable to participate or win.

Altogether, disinformation remains a persistent threat to democracies and corporations, and the primary threat actors are still the main antagonists. Generative AI has slightly changed the threat, but new technologies are also being used to track and prevent these problems.

Trump’s Convictions Could Lead to Violence

Following former President Donald Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts, his supporters reacted with violent rhetoric on pro-Trump websites, calling for riots, revolution, and attacks on legal officials. A Reuters review of comments on Truth Social, Patriots.Win, and Gateway Pundit found calls for attacks on jurors, the judge, and incitement to civil war. 

Threats of violence against liberals and Democrats surged, echoing similar sentiments after Trump's 2020 election loss. Trump, claiming the trial was rigged, continued his attacks online, which fueled his followers' extremist language. Real-world violence remains unlikely, but there are credible threats. One such extremist group part of this rise in possible violence is the Proud Boys, a far-right extremist group involved in the January 6 Capitol riot. They are resurging as Trump’s campaign for the presidency as their presence at rallies and events has increased, and some members are preparing for potential violence if Trump faces legal consequences or loses the election. 

Despite leadership imprisonments, the Proud Boys have restructured into self-governing chapters to evade law enforcement scrutiny. Their founder, Gavin McInnes, remains an influential figure, mediating internal disputes. Former leader Enrique Tarrio, serving a 22-year sentence for seditious conspiracy. Trump’s rhetoric and hints of potential pardons have emboldened the group, which sees itself as defenders of Trump and American nationalism. Experts and former officials warn of the group's enduring threat and capacity for organized violence, and it is credible they will engage in violence at the upcoming conventions.

Political Violence Increases in Europe and Canada

The recent assassination attempt on Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico, along with assaults on Socialist and Greens candidates in Germany and an anti-fascist event in Stockholm, point to heightened political tensions in Europe ahead of EU Parliament elections.

While incidents involving radical groups have increased slightly in 2021, overall violence by far-left and far-right groups in the EU has remained stable. ACLED data shows “that overall radical violence in Europe has remained at nearly the same level since data collection began in 2021 and that the far right is behind 85% of it.”

Greece, France, and Germany have seen the most violence by radical groups with far-right activity dominating targeted attacks. However, far-left and anarchist groups in Greece have been responsible for a significant portion of violent events, including attempted bombings. In France, far-right groups are proliferating and engaging in vigilantism while in Germany, the uncovering of a mass deportation plot has sparked widespread demonstrations against right-wing extremism. Despite these challenges, far-right parties are expected to increase their legislative influence after the elections, raising concerns about the potential radicalization of politics in the European Union. Europe is not the only place to experience increased potential political violence.

Over the last five years in Canada, harassment against Members of Parliament has surged by nearly 800% with incidents primarily occurring online but also in person and at events. The data shows threats increasing significantly, rising from approximately eight in 2019 to 530 in 2023. Extremist violence and the threat of violence is increasing overall in the Western world, and political campaigns, candidates, and members of government are all increasingly likely targets.

This is not the first time the Western world has seen such violence; during the 1960s and 1970s there was a string of high-profile assassinations and kidnappings in the US and Europe. Though currently unlikely, it is plausible such political violence will return over the medium term.