Trump Encourages Russia to Attack NATO

Former President Trump is a known populist and nationalist opposed to international institutions, but his recent comments on NATO have become a strong indicator that if Trump wins the 2024 election that European security will have to fundamentally change. Trump stated that he would encourage Russia to attack any NATO member that fails to meet its 2% defense spending commitments and that he would refuse to help defend any such country. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg stated Trump’s comment “undermines all of our security.”

During Trump’s first administration, there was serious discussion about the United States pulling out of the organization. If he wins a second term, then Trump’s criticism of NATO will likely continue, and further similar discussions will likely take place. Should that occur, there will be significant disruptions to European security and global politics that will increase instability and encourage revisionist powers like Russia and China to take bolder actions.

Risks of Violent Protests at Munich Conference

The 60th Munich Security Conference will take place February 16-18, and several activist groups have planned protests in the city during the event. These are most likely to pass off peacefully, but there is a heightened risk of violence by extremists because of European support for Israel in the current war against Hamas in Gaza. Environmentalists are the other group most likely to engage in violence with their protests. There will also be a protest against NATO, but that issue rarely leads to violence. This is a major annual security conference, but the increased risks are an indicator of the continued threat from extremists at typical political activities in the United States and Europe.

Senate Passes Foreign Aid Bill

The US Senate has passed a $95 billion foreign aid bill that will give $60 billion to Ukraine along with offering funding for Israel and Taiwan. Populist conservatives in the Senate attempted to filibuster the legislation, but when that failed, the bill passed with 70 votes. A previous version of the bill failed to pass because of a lack of funding for border security, which is the same reasoning that Speaker of the House Johnson has stated he will not bring the bill up for a vote in the chamber. Moderate Democrats in the House are attempting a work around by bringing about a discharge petition, but it remains unclear if they will have enough signatures because the left-wing of the party opposes the legislation for its support for Israel. Without this funding, Ukraine’s fighting capabilities will be significantly diminished, but American domestic politics will take precedence in the fight over the legislation.

Apple and Microsoft Win Against EU

American technology companies scored a victory when the European Commission stated that Apple’s iMessage and Microsoft’s Bing and Edge search browsers should not be designated as “gatekeepers” under the EU’s Digital Markets Act. This essentially means that Apple will not be required to open iMessage up to Android devices or messaging apps like WhatsApp and Telegram. The EU has consistently been opposed to American technology companies, but this was a pro-market decision that does not punish major tech companies simply because they have a popular product. However, this should not be seen as a broader indicator that the EU will move away from overly burdensome regulations for businesses as the decision was made within the regulatory context.

Sharif Reappointed PM of Pakistan

The recent election in Pakistan, overshadowed by irregularities and terrorist attacks, resulted in a new political landscape. Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League, with Shehbaz Sharif as its appointed leader, has formed a coalition government. This development is complemented by the Pakistan People’s Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, which has pledged external support to the coalition. While Shehbaz Sharif’s return as Prime Minister might cause discontent among many Pakistanis, the collaboration of the two major political families, supported by military elites, suggests a potential for short-term political stability.

This stability, however, faces challenges from Imran Khan's supporters, who, having secured numerous independent seats, are poised to form a strong opposition. In the context of this political restructuring, the new government, under Sharif's leadership, is expected to focus on economic measures, such as extending the IMF program and stabilizing the rupee.

Despite the election's conclusion, the threat of terrorism remains a significant concern. Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) has been increasingly supportive of Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP), providing them with training, ideological guidance, and direct involvement in operations, as evidenced in the recent attacks on military checkpoints in Chitral. This alliance between AQIS and TTP, sanctioned by senior Al-Qaeda leaders, heightens the risk of further terrorist activities in the region.

Terrorism in the Sahel

A recent UN report notes the establishment of a truce between the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama‘a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM). This truce implies a strategic shift, as these groups will likely redirect their focus from inter-factional conflict to other targets. This shift is particularly concerning given the current security vulnerabilities in West Africa, which have been exacerbated by multiple coups, the distancing of military juntas from ECOWAS, and the earlier withdrawal of French and UN forces from counter-terrorism efforts in the region. The report suggests a probable increase in attacks on security and government forces by ISGS and JNIM. These groups may also strategically reduce civilian targeting to gain local support, thereby enhancing their influence, funding, and recruitment. Additionally, their growing ability to integrate within local communities is expected to facilitate cross-border operations and attacks.

Estonian PM Put on Russia’s Wanted List

Russia has placed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas and other European officials on a “wanted list” for “desecration of historical memory. Kallas’s “crime” was to remove at least 400 Soviet-era World War II monuments in Estonia because the government argued the monuments encouraged “tensions in Estonian society.” This is the first time Russia’s interior ministry has attempted to bring a criminal case against a foreign leader. It was most likely done because Kallas has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and she has also called for strengthening NATO. While Russia is unlikely to target Estonia or its leadership in the short term, this is another indicator of Russian hostility towards the West and Baltic states, and it is an indicator that Russia will likely use some level of force in the long term in the region.

Threats of Political Violence Increase in the U.S.

There are new indicators that political extremism and violence are increasing in the United States, which raising risks for the remainder of the presidential election in 2024. First, the number of hoax bomb threats following posts by the popular right-wing account Libs of TikTok has spread significantly. There have been a number of bomb threats made against schools when Libs of TikTok post about their teaching critical race theory or approach to LGBTQ issues. Second, new data from the US Marshall Services shows that threats against federal judges has more than doubled since 2021. There are increased risks from political violence in United States during the election, especially due to the highly polarized nature of the electorate. Corporations that get connected to political causes can become potential targets of such violence.

New Research by IISS

The International Institute for Strategic Studies has issued a new report on the coming “dangerous decade” due to higher military budgets and global instability. From the report: “The deteriorating security environment is exemplified by mounting conflicts – such as the Hamas–Israel war, Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, and Azerbaijan’s takeover of the Nagorno-Karabakh region; coups in Niger and Gabon; China’s more assertive maneuvers around Taiwan, in the South China Sea and elsewhere; and attacks on critical national infrastructure, including a gas pipeline and data cables in the Baltic Sea.” The research report can be found here.