Israel Rejects Hamas Ceasefire Proposal

Israel Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected Hamas’s ceasefire counterproposal, and he has vowed “total victory” in the conflict. Hamas’s proposal was a 135-day truce in which the young, old, and infirm hostages would be released in exchange for Palestinian women and children being released by Israel. Then Israel would have to fully remove its troops from Gaza, and Hamas would release the remaining male hostages. Israel estimates that at least one-fifth of the captives in Gaza have died. Hamas added controversial provisions to the proposal, indicating they had no expectation of Israel accepting the offer. These provisions included Hamas having influence over the protocols allowing Jewish entry in the Temple Mount, and wanting Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, Russia, and the UN to enforce the ceasefire. Therefore, Israel is extremely likely to continue its military operations for the next few months, although the operations will likely decrease as the IDF becomes more successful in southern Gaza. However, a ceasefire is highly unlikely in the short term, and the primary indicator for Israel choosing to reduce its presence in Gaza will be the IDF stating Hamas’s capabilities and infrastructure have been sufficiently degraded.

Iran Increases Cyberattacks Against Israel

Microsoft has stated that Iran has increased its cyber operations against Israel. The company noted, "Many of Iran’s immediate operations after October 7 were hasty and chaotic – indicating it had little or no coordination with Hamas – but it nevertheless has achieved growing success." According to the report, these attacks were primarily leaking old material and used pre-existing access to networks, and the number of threat actor groups operating in Israel jumped from 9 to 14. Iran also expanded its attacks by going after targets in Albania, Bahrain, and the US. While these attacks were not sophisticated, they are part of a broader campaign by Iran to use irregular warfare and proxies against Western powers and their allies in the region. From the Houthis to Hezbollah to Kataib Hezbollah, Iran has supported terrorist attacks against American infrastructure and forces. The US and Israel have tried not to allow the war to expand because they do not want a regional conflict, but if Iran continues on this path, then both countries are highly likely to use targeted attacks (sorties and cyberattacks) that have risk of escalation (though that risk would still remain low).

Netherlands Has Trouble Creating Coalition

In the most recent elections in the Netherlands, fifteen parties gained seats in parliament, and that is leading to problems creating a coalition government. Right-wing politician Geert Wilders and his Party for Freedom (PVV) were hoping to lead a coalition, but they cannot get enough parties to join them despite coming first in the election. This is not entirely unusual in Dutch politics as it took the government 300 days to form a coalition in 2021. However, it does mean that the Netherlands might have to hold another election if a government cannot be formed. This is an important indicator of the changing politics in Europe. If the Netherlands has another election and PVV maintains its first place, it will be a strong indicator that right-wing politics is in the ascendency in Europe. If PVV performs poorly, then it is likely that the most recent election was a fluke.

US Senate Rejects Border Security-Foreign Aid Bill

The US Senate voted down the bipartisan border security and foreign aid bill after Republicans voted together to filibuster the agreement. This is even though the Republican leadership were the ones who demanded the bill. The legislation was $118 billion package that would have provided support for Israel and Ukraine while also increasing security at the US border. Senate Majority Leader Schumer will now submit legislation on foreign aid that does not include border security. This is a negative indicator for both Ukraine and border security as the embattled country desperately needs the support of the United States, and there is a political battle occurring in Texas over the border that will likely lead to federal intervention. New legislation is unlikely to make it through the House even if Schumer can introduce a new bill as demonstrated by the failure of the GOP leadership in the Senate to coral their members.

Anonymous Sudan Attacks Pro-Israel Companies

Anti-Israel hacktivists are impacting security in eastern Africa and beyond as Anonymous Sudan is targeting entities that they believe support Israel. In January and February 2024, the group attacked the London Internet Exchange in the UK, hospital systems in Israel, and energy companies in Canada. Anonymous Sudan is highly likely to continue to target organizations in Israel itself, Canada, Chad, Djibouti, the UAE, UK, and US, but these are most likely to be DDoS attacks that have limited impact. However, this highlights the persistent risk from hacktivists when organizations are perceived to engage in political issues.

China Adjusts Flight Paths Near Taiwan

China’s civil aviation administration has amended operations on a flight route (M503) west of Taiwan, which is an attempt to show China controls the airspace around the Kinmen and Matsu islands. The amended operations are political signaling to Taiwan akin to mounted air incursions and sending drones/balloons into the island’s airspace. This change also has military implications because should a war breakout this would allow China to partially disguise military movements. Corporations should note this amending increases aviation safety risks as civilian planes could inadvertently enter Taiwanese airspace used for military exercises “if there is bad weather or abnormal flight operations.” There are not heightened risks of an invasion in the short term as this is most likely the CCP trying to degrade Taiwanese sovereignty rather than prepare for military operations.

Egyptian Pound Faces Devaluation

Egypt is facing major economic problems as the government is unable to provide US dollars and has a scarcity of foreign currency. The Egyptian pound has fallen sharply against the US dollar, and it is highly likely to fall further. New regulations have imposed limitations on the amount of money people can take from ATMs, and that has scared investors. Pricing of goods has also become deeply problematic as prices can change daily or even hourly. Previously, currency devaluations and dollar shortages have caused import restrictions, higher prices for food and consumer goods, shortages, and disruptions to access of raw materials. There are likely to be protests and some civil unrest if this devaluation continues because people will not be able to afford staple goods.

Senegal Presidential Election Delayed Until December

The presidential election in Senegal, originally set for February 25, 2024, has now been rescheduled to December 15, 2024. This shift occurred after a heated parliamentary session, during which opposition lawmakers were forcefully ejected amid debates over President Macky Sall's suggestion to postpone the election. Critics, particularly from the opposition, have decried this postponement as a "constitutional coup" and an attack on democratic principles. President Sall, who was expected to leave office on April 2, 2024, has publicly declared no intention to prolong his presidency. However, his initial proposal was to delay the election indefinitely due to issues with the candidate list. This triggered fears of an extended tenure for him. However, the decision to hold the election in December may still facilitate a smooth transfer of power, a process Senegal has successfully managed three times before, despite previous concerns regarding incumbent presidents clinging to power. The decision to delay the election led to widespread unrest, with security forces resorting to tear gas to disperse protesters outside the parliament in Dakar. The government also implemented internet restrictions. The likelihood of continued protests in response to these developments remains high.