Iran Indicates There Won’t Be Regional War 

In a private meeting, Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, allegedly told the leader of Hamas that Iran will not fully back the terrorist organization because they were given no warning of the attack on October 7. Both U.S. and Israeli intelligence have previously said Iran was not aware of the attack. Even if Iran does not fully back Hamas with direct intervention, they will still offer some political support. Khamenei reportedly also told Hamas to stop Palestinian groups from calling for Iran’s intervention. Iran was not the only member of the Axis of Resistance to be surprised by Hamas’s terrorist attack. Hezbollah did not know that Hamas planned to start a war either. Hamas is desperate for external support as Israel’s siege of Gaza City and the hospital have brutally neutralized significant resources of the organization. 

Nevertheless, there have been several attacks by the Axis: Hezbollah has fired rockets several times, the Houthis have attacked ships in the Red Sea, and Iranian proxies have attacked U.S. troops almost 60 times in Iraq and Syria. The strategy of the Axis of Resistance is to increase the strain on Israel’s resources without fully drawing in the United States or to turn Israel against them in a full war. This is because they know they are incapable of taking on the U.S. or Israel, and they would face similar levels of destruction to Hamas. Yet this is a positive signal for regional stability because it a strong indicator that there will not be a regional war between Israel, the United States, and the Axis of Resistance.  

Biden and Xi Meet 

President Biden and President Xi of China met on November 15 near San Francisco at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. The meeting is an attempt to improve relations between the two powers as there has been significant tension over the past few years. Several issues were discussed, including artificial intelligence, fentanyl, export controls, and climate change. Another important topic the two discussed was restoring U.S.-China military communication to prevent clashes around Taiwan. 

China is likely engaging in these discussions because their economy is in decline, and they are facing major problems in multiple sectors, such as semiconductors and real estate. One area of concern is the way U.S. corporations are treated in China, often arbitrarily and poorly. In early November, China’s Ministry of Commerce said it was gathering information to address the problem, which was done before the summit. However, this reprieve is likely to only be temporary, and by next year they will return to their previous hostile posture. China is highly likely to face continued economic problems over the medium term, and the CCP is highly likely to continue its aggressive foreign policy actions to secure its interests amid the perception they will no longer be able to compete with the United States.  

Australia to Impose Export Restrictions 

Australia is set to pass new legislation to increase restrictions on sharing defense technologies with foreign entities with the exception of the United States and United Kingdom. This is similar to the export controls the U.S. has implemented to contain the threat posed by China. However, there will be some research problems in Australia as universities there are heavily dependent on international collaboration. For example, a full third of research students are foreigners, particularly from China. More importantly, this is a strong signal that the balkanization of technology is moving forward (See our Top 10 Geopolitical Risks for more). Corporations will face over the medium term the rise of “technology blocs” similar to economic blocs during the Cold War. 

NATO Cyber Response 

NATO delegates met on November 9 for the first annual Cyber Defense Conference in which members endorsed creating a cyber center. It remains unclear what shape or purpose the center would ultimately undertake, though the German foreign minister used the phrase “actively defend,” which indicates offensive capabilities. In typical diplomatic speak, the summit’s communiqué stated, “We are determined to employ the full range of capabilities in order to deter, defend against and counter the full spectrum of cyber threats, including by considering collective responses.” This matters for businesses because the private sector is often targeted by APTs, and in places like the United States corporations control a significant portion of critical infrastructure. If NATO decides to make cyberattacks part of collective security, then corporations will likely play a role in some form.  

Biden Administration Aims to Free Up Spectrum 

The Biden administration announced steps to free up parts of the wireless spectrum for the needs of advanced technology. Their steps include repurposing spectrum presently used by the federal government along with a study of more than 2,700 megahertz of spectrum to repurpose. Demand for the spectrum is increasing as U.S. wireless data traffic rose 38% in 2022. In the White House’s statement, the administration noted, “Innovations ranging from 5G networks, to precision agriculture, to unmanned aerial vehicles, to moon missions take large amounts of spectrum to operate.” This is a good signal for business as freeing up the spectrum will help wireless broadband, drones, and satellite operations. 

Social Media Companies Win Hate Speech Case 

Google, Meta, and TikTok won a court case in Austria concerning the issue of fining the companies over hate speech on the platforms. The social media companies argued that EU law requires online service providers be subject to the laws and regulations of the countries in which they are established, which is Ireland in Europe. Therefore, the court ruled that they are only subject to Irish and EU laws, but these companies are subject to the Digital Services Act. The EU has declared that social media companies must detail child protection measures by December 1 as part of the new legislation. Although this case was a win against patchwork regulations that social media companies must follow, it did reiterate how the DSA gives the EU the power to control speech on these platforms.  

Joe Manchin Will Not Seek Reelection 

Senator Joe Manchin, the Democrat from West Virginia, announced that he will not seek reelection in 2024, which means it is highly like a Republican will take his place. Manchin is a moderate Democrat in a relatively conservative state, and it is his incumbency that has let the Democrats keep control of the Senate. The Senate is currently 48 Democrats, 3 Independents, and 49 Republicans, and in the 2024 election 23 Democratic seats will be up for election (10 for Republicans). Places like West Virginia have decidedly turned against Democrats over the past decade because of environmental and social issues. This indicates that Republicans are likely to take back control of the Senate following the 2024 election, which will determine the policy direction the new administration will be able to take. 

New Research by Kroll on Social Engineering 

Kroll has released new research showing that social engineering attacks took “center stage” in Q3 2023. They argue that it has become threat actors’ method of choice as there has been a significant increase in the use of the tactic, such as phishing, smishing, valid accounts, vishing, and other social engineering techniques. Examples included in the report include K2A243’s (SCATTERED SPIDER) novel phishing email scams or the use of Microsoft Teams to facilitate attacks. Importantly for corporations, business email compromise (BEC) is increasing in popularity with threat actors, and Kroll noted that construction, manufacturing, and legal firms were especially targeted. 

Incidents of School Shootings Increase 

According to the K-12 School Shooting Database, the number of U.S. school shootings in 2023 surpassed the record-breaking number of school shootings in 2022 (306 vs 305, though there are still another month or so of school time left in the semester – there will likely be between 360-400 shootings by the end of 2023). This is the third consecutive year of increases in school shootings. Although this is useful data, the definition of “shooting” is extremely broad and includes “any time a gun is fired or brandished with intent, or when a bullet hits school property, regardless of the number of victims, time, day or reason behind the incident.” Therefore, this indicates increased insecurity both in and around schools, but the data needs to be recoded and parsed before security professionals can delineate appropriate measures.