Argentina Elects Libertarian President

Argentina has elected an ideological libertarian to the presidency who wants to radically change the fiscal and economic structure of the country. President-elect Javier Milei was elected because of the extreme economic problems facing Argentina, winning 56% of the vote. The Argentinian government is essentially broke while facing a $44 billion debt program with the International Monetary Fund and close to 150% inflation. Milei’s policy preferences are to cut major parts of the government, slash regulations, and possibly adopt the U.S. dollar as the nation’s currency. Economically, Milei’s policies are likely to have some positive impact should the reforms not go too far. Liberalization and monetarism have historically helped contain inflation, which is enormously destructive to economies. Comparative periods to Argentina’s problems are Germany in the 1950s and the United Kingdom in the 1970s, and similar economic policies helped resolve those problems. However, extreme libertarian policies can have an inverse effect when insufficient revenue is raised and inequality increases.

There will be major geopolitical implications as well because Milei has described Biden as a socialist, Brazil’s Lula as an “angry communist,” and Xi Jinping as an “assassin.” Despite these issues, China has indicated that the CCP will continue to work with Argentina, mostly because they desperately want to counter the United States. Under Milei, Argentina is significantly less likely to move forward with joining BRICS+ as Milei is far more pro-American than his predecessor. The United States is likely to benefit from this election concerning rare earth minerals and improved relations in a region hostile towards American power. Corporations will face uncertainty over the medium term because it is unclear how successful Milei will be as the legislature is unlikely to go along with all of his policy choices. 

Israel and Hamas agree to Pause in Fighting

Israel and Hamas have reportedly agreed for a pause in fighting for at least four days to allow aid into Gaza and for Hamas to release 50 hostages. As part of the deal, Israel will release 150 jailed Palestinians and halt all air sorties over southern Gaza and maintain a daily six-hour daytime no-fly window in the north of Gaza. The truce was brokered by Qatar, in coordination with the United States and Egypt. Israel said the ceasefire could be extended further if more hostages were freed. Adding a day for each ten hostages released.
 

The truce will not begin until 24 November at the earliest and it is unclear if it will be extended beyond a few days. Both Israel and Hamas have said they are prepared to continue fighting. Israel likely agreed to the truce because of being under severe political pressure over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. They will hope that this will allow them further room to continue with their military operation but are unlikely to agree to a longer-lasting ceasefire until all hostages are released as a minimum. Hamas is unlikely to release all of its hostages although it may release more than the initial 50 to prolong the ceasefire for a few days. If any part of the deal is not fully implemented or if either side breaches the ceasefire, then fighting is likely to escalate quickly.

Houthi Militants Seize Ship in the Red Sea

On 20 November, Houthi militants hijacked a cargo ship in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen. The vessel, named "Galaxy Leader," is a 189-meter-long (620ft-long) car carrier and reportedly had more than 20 crew members on board. The ship is reportedly Bahaman-flagged, registered under a British company, and leased to a Japanese company. However, it is believed to be also partly owned by an Israeli businessman and the Houthi claimed the vessel was Israeli saying that the seizure was just the beginning of a "battle at sea" and that Israeli ships are a “legitimate target,” because of the military operation against Hamas in Gaza. 
 

The Houthi’s form part of Iran’s Axis of resistance and have previously fired long-range rockets targeting Israel in solidarity with Hamas. This incident raises significant security concerns in the Red Sea, a crucial maritime route.  Shipping, particularly that linked to Irael, will face higher insurance rates because of the incident.

North Korea Launches Spy Satellite

North Korea claims it has successfully launched a spy satellite. The extent of the satellite's capabilities remains uncertain, but even limited functionality to monitor larger objects marks a significant advancement in North Korea's technological progress. The launch follows two failed attempts earlier this year. If the satellite maintains operational status and North Korea executes additional successful launches, it could enable the country to track the movements of US and South Korean military forces. Moreover, the ability to deploy a satellite into orbit implies that North Korea might also possess the technology to develop a missile capable of carrying a warhead of similar size. In response, South Korea has enhanced its surveillance systems and partially suspended a military agreement with North Korea who moved troops to the border. The United States and Japan have condemned the launch, criticizing it as a provocative action that threatens regional stability.
 

Extremist Violence Motivated by Conspiracies

New research by Reuters indicates that domestic extremism on the rise in the United States is fueled by online conspiracy theories and narratives, which is a departure from historical norms of ideological motivations like anti-government or environmentalist beliefs. Their research primarily focused on right-wing terrorists, like Rory Banks and Anderson Lee Aldrich. Leftists motivated by online narratives tend to focus on sabotage and property destruction, but there have now been multiple trans activists killing children (or threatening to) at Christian schools. Terrorism researchers are also noting the increased likelihood of political violence in the 2024 election based on conspiracy theories. Security organizations and analysts will need to track such conspiracies online to determine likely causes and motivations that might threaten their clients, even indirectly or tangentially.
 

Germany Budget Freeze

Germany's Finance Ministry has implemented a spending freeze across all federal ministries. This decision to halt most new spending authorizations comes in the wake of a ruling by the constitutional court. The court's decision limits the ministry's ability to access funds from various special reserves. This includes the reallocation of approximately €60 billion in unspent COVID-19 pandemic funds, which were earmarked for climate and transformation projects. These projects are part of efforts to bypass the country's debt brake rule, which caps the federal deficit at 0.35 percent of GDP, barring emergencies. The funds were intended to expedite the green transition and help German industry cope with soaring energy costs. This ruling poses additional challenges for Germany's tripartite coalition government, which is already facing internal discord and economic pressures. The government is grappling with sluggish growth and diminished demand, and the court's decision could exacerbate these issues.

Far-right Party Wins most Seats in Netherlands Election

In the Netherlands' general election held on 22 November, the Freedom Party (PVV), led by Geert Wilders is set to win 37 seats, well ahead of his nearest rival, a left-wing alliance. Wilders faces challenges in achieving a majority in the 150-seat parliament. He needs to form a coalition with at least 76 seats to govern effectively. Most parties had ruled out working with him because of his far-right policies, but this could change because of the number of seats the PVV has. Wilders also indicated he would be prepared to compromise on some of his harder right policies, particularly around his stance on Islam. The PVV's platform included proposals to ban mosques and the Quran and prohibit Islamic headscarves in government buildings. Wilders is also a hardline euroskeptic, proposing a referendum on EU membership. Nationalist and far-right leaders around Europe praised his achievement. French National Rally leader Marine Le Pen said it "confirms the growing attachment to the defence of national identities" and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said that “the winds of change are here.”
 

United Kingdom Tax Cuts

The U.K.’s finance minister Jeremy Hunt announced tax cuts that will take place before the 2024 election in the hopes of boosting the flailing British economy. In addition, Hunt wants to increase social insurance and pension payments while decreasing the rate of social security contributions by 2%. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is losing in the polls, and he has offered few solid policies to help the economy. His only major policy has been to ban cigarettes for anyone under fourteen. Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, pointed out that the United Kingdom is facing “very high levels of tax, the highest historically that we have had, and apparently not very much for public services, partly because we're spending so much on that debt interest.” Britain is highly likely to have growth that is less than 2%, and the economy will still face significant problems without a stronger plan to deal with debt.

Trump Threatens Asia Trade Deal

Former President and current Republican front runner Donald Trump has stated that he will end the Pacific trade deal currently being negotiated by President Biden. Trump described the current deal as worse than the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiated by Obama. This is typical of Trump’s protectionist beliefs as he opposes free trade and globalization as he argues the deal would “hollow out” U.S. manufacturing. Biden wanted to finish negotiating the deal and get it through the Senate before APEC, but the negotiations stalled over concerns by Vietnam and Indonesia of Biden’s left-wing views on labor rights. Should Trump get re-elected, then deglobalization will further continue as the U.S. pulls out of trade agreements with strategically important partners. Businesses will have to accept the long-term risks of an economically fragmented political order.