Iranian President Killed in Helicopter Crash

Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian died in a helicopter crash on 20 May. There is no suggestion that the crash was anything other than an accident and the impact of Raisi’s death is relatively limited. That does not mean it is insignificant. For example, the president is the head of the Supreme Council for National Security and is responsible for making policy recommendations to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, Khamenei is the final decision maker, albeit influenced by the president and other actors such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

Vice President, Mohammed Mokhber will assume the presidency until elections are held on 28 June. Mokhber is unlikely to have any meaningful influence or seek to succeed Raisi and the likelihood is there will be no significant policy shifts.

Iran's primary goal is regime stability and survival. Raisi’s death does not threaten this, but it does bring internal uncertainty. The regime is deeply unpopular over its handling of the economy and its response to protests. The U.S. is also potentially bringing new sanctions and holds an election this year that could lead to a second Trump presidency. Trump was notably hawkish on Iran. These factors will increase the regime’s fear of political instability.

Immediately, the biggest indicator of instability will be increased political infighting over candidates for Raisi’s replacement and speculation over whether his death was truly an accident. There are some claims on social media that Israel killed Raisi, but this is highly unlikely to be true. Widespread unrest because of Raisi’s death or the election is also unlikely. Iran’s regime has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to supress protests and dissent is most likely to take the form of a low voter turnout. There was a historically low turnout and a high number of spoil ballot papers during parliamentary elections in March this year.

The real power struggle will occur when Khamenei, who is 85, dies. Raisi along with Khamenei's son were seen as the two most likely successors. Khamenei's son is obviously now the most likely, but Raisi’s death means new challengers may emerge. But for now - meet the new boss, same as the old boss...

Political Instability in Israel over lack of post war Gaza plan

Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Rafah is ongoing but there is domestic instability over the plan for Gaza when the conflict is over. Benny Gantz has threatened to resign from the war cabinet if there is no new plan for Gaza by 8 June. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, also part of the war cabinet, has also threatened to quit. If this happens then Prime Minister Netanyahu would be under even greater influence of the far-right members of his cabinet. They want to occupy Gaza for Jewish settlers.

Israel has not outlined any governance or transition plan for Gaza. Its immediate focus will be on preventing Hamas from regrouping and rearming. This might involve maintaining a buffer zone and controlling border crossings, but Israel will need to balance its own security needs with the humanitarian aid and reconstruction requirements for Gaza. There are several possibilities including a transitional government led by the Palestinian Authority, or Israel controlling security and local councils dealing with governance. Neither of these are popular in Gaza where Hamas is still widely supported.

Meanwhile, Israel recalled its ambassadors from Norway, Ireland, and Spain after they announced they plan to recognize an independent Palestinian state on 28 May. The International Criminal Court has also said that it will seek arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and defence minister Yoav Gallant. As well as Hamas's leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and leaders Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed al-Masri. Israel is not a member of the court and does not recognise its jurisdiction but is facing increasing international pressure because of its ongoing offensive in Gaza. 

The conflict continues to pose brand and reputation risks for international companies. Businesses will increasingly see their stakeholders and activist groups put pressure on them to stop operating in Israel because of humanitarian issues.

South African Election on 29 May

South Africa will hold its general election on 29 May. According to polling data, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is set to lose its majority for the first time since the end of apartheid. Former President Jacob Zuma has been barred from running due to his criminal record, but he is still influential in the election through his new uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party. MK has strong support in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng and could substantially impact the ANC's vote share. The ANC’s decline and the rise of new parties suggest a fragmented parliament, creating political uncertainty. The election is dominated by key issues such as high unemployment, economic stagnation, corruption, failing infrastructure, and high crime rates. Additionally, immigration has become a contentious topic, with rising anti-immigrant sentiment and discussions on tougher immigration laws​.

UK Claims China is Providing Lethal Aid to Russia

On 22 May, UK Defence Minister Grant Shapps announced that intelligence has confirmed China is providing lethal aid to Russia to support its war in Ukraine. The U.S. had previously stated in April that China was supplying drone and missile technology, satellite imagery, and machine tools, but this is the first time it has been claimed that China is supplying lethal aid directly. This is significant because it allows Russia to sustain and potentially escalate military operations. China's actions will likely strain its relationship with the U.S. and other Western countries. If the U.S. or others corroborate the British intelligence, sanctions or other trade restrictions are likely against any Chinese companies or individuals identified as being involved.

DRC Coup Prevented

On 19 May, the security forces prevented a coup in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). According to various sources, the incident involved Congolese and foreign citizens, including three US nationals and a naturalized British citizen. The government, however, later denied that it was a coup attempt, calling it an assault on the presidency rather than a coordinated effort to overthrow the government. The apparent leader of the attack, Christian Malanga, was killed by security forces in the incident. Claims that the U.S., CIA, and Mossad were all involved in planning the attack were circulated on social media. There is nothing to substantiate these claims and the rumours are likely intended to damage U.S. and Israeli standing in the region.

The motive is unclear, but the DRC is geopolitically significant due to its vast natural resources, including cobalt, copper, coltan, gold, diamonds, tin, and tungsten. These resources are crucial for global supply chains in the technology, construction, and renewable energy sectors.

PVV forms Coalition Government in the Netherlands

The formation of a coalition government in the Netherlands by Geert Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) is a significant shift in Dutch politics. The coalition includes the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), the new New Social Contract (NSC) party, and the agrarian Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB). Together, these parties hold a strong majority of 88 seats in the 150-seat Lower House.

The government plans to implement the "strictest-ever" asylum policies, including an opt-out from EU rules on asylum seekers, stricter regulations on labor migration, and limits on foreign students entering Dutch universities. There are also plans to expand offshore natural gas extraction and nuclear energy production, and rollback agricultural and vehicle policies meant to reduce pollution. Additionally, the coalition aims to increase defense spending to meet NATO requirements. The coalition's policies are expected to strain relations with the EU due to their anti-immigration stance and Euroskeptic views. Politics in Europe is shifting with the right also expected to make gains in the upcoming EU elections.

China Seeks to Localize Semiconductor Supply Chain

Chinese chipmakers are increasing their efforts to localize their supply chains to counter the effects of U.S.-led export restrictions. This includes sourcing domestically produced tools, chemicals, and gases critical for semiconductor manufacturing. This strategy is intended to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers because of the export controls and tariffs that limit China's access to advanced semiconductor technology. As China increases its self-reliance in semiconductor production it will limit the access of foreign companies to the sector.

Cyberattacks Against U.S. Infrastructure Increasing

Cyberattacks on U.S. water infrastructure have been increasing, with federal officials warning that about 70% of inspected utilities had inadequate safeguards. These attacks, originating from groups linked to Iran, Russia, and China, have targeted water supplies in Texas, Pennsylvania, and other states, growing more severe and frequent over time. Some utilities were found still using default passwords or allowing access to former employees, highlighting significant vulnerabilities. Nation-state actors are targeting critical infrastructure for geopolitical reasons, with the potential to disrupt services in times of heightened tensions.

Russia Denies Launching Anti-Satellite Weapon

On May 22, 2024, Russia dismissed claims by the United States that it had deployed an anti-satellite weapon in space. The U.S. Space Command had suggested that a Soyuz rocket launch on 17 May was carrying a counterspace weapon capable of targeting other satellites. U.S. officials announced earlier this year that Russia was developing a nuclear anti-satellite weapon, which Russia also denies. Geopolitical competition in space is increasing and there are significant risks associated with the militarization of space because of the importance of satellites in sectors such as communications, navigation, and scientific research.