How government agencies like the intelligence community and central banks use generative AI will offer useful lessons for the private sector. Of course, they will need to guard against over-reliance on AI due to its inability to reason and handle deceptive intelligence contexts fully. Human intelligence analysts will need to remain part of the process.

EU Encourages Universities to Work with Intelligence Agencies

The European Union member states are recommending closer collaboration between leading research universities and intelligence agencies to protect research from theft by hostile states, particularly in critical technology areas like advanced semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum, and biotechnologies. The recommendation emphasizes facilitating information exchange between research organizations and intelligence services, developing cross-sectoral cooperation within governments, and considering security vetting for key researchers. 

This move reflects growing concerns about espionage efforts, particularly attributed to China and Russia, targeting research institutions in the West. Corporations need to consider this issue carefully because of their reliance on universities in the intellectual property supply chain, and universities often have significantly weaker security practices and awareness. Russia has previously targeted European universities, and threat actors could easily steal intellectual property in those institutions without corporations knowing.

South Africa’s Election Indicates ANC Loss of Majority

The election in South Africa on May 29 marks a potential historic shift as predictions indicate the ruling African National Congress (ANC) may fall short of the 50% majority needed to govern alone for the first time since Apartheid ended. Grievances among voters include issues such as rolling power cuts, unemployment, crime, and a lack of basic amenities, highlighting the ANC's perceived failures in governance. President Cyril Ramaphosa's tenure has struggled to address the legacy of corruption that plagued the party under former President Jacob Zuma. Additionally, xenophobia is rampant, with some politicians scapegoating African migrants for economic and social challenges. 

Various opposition parties, including those led by Zuma and radical left-wing groups like the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), are challenging the ANC's dominance. The Democratic Alliance (DA), perceived as representing the interests of minority white South Africans, hopes to capitalize on discontent with the ANC but faces criticism for its stance on racial inequality and support for Israel. With more than 70 parties competing in the election, potential coalition-building may shape the post-election political landscape, with the ANC likely seeking alliances to maintain its influence despite a possible loss of majority. Should that occur, then it will likely signal a radical change in politics in South Africa that could lead to significant instability. However, if the country is forced to accept market reforms, then it could lead to longer-term development in a country facing major issues.

Iran Closer to Having a Nuclear Weapon

A confidential UN report indicates that Iran has accumulated enough weapons-grade uranium for three nuclear bombs. Despite efforts by France and the UK to propose a resolution on Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency, the US is reportedly blocking it. This development fuels political debates in the US, particularly regarding the administration's stance on Iran, amid ongoing tensions in the region. Additionally, there are speculations about potential shifts in Iran's leadership and its future relations with the West. The Biden administration has taken a much softer approach on Iran, opposing the UK and France from censuring Iran over their nuclear advances after having release $10 billion in frozen funds. Iran being on the precipice of having nuclear weapons will extremely destabilize the Middle East further than it already is. Academic research indicates that when competing powers both have nuclear weapons low-level conflict increases.

New Research Challenges “Unhackability” of Quantum Communications

Quantum technologies, particularly quantum communications, have significant potential to enhance data security. However, researchers investigated quantum key distribution, a type of quantum cryptography, to determine if eavesdroppers could intercept and tamper with key transfers undetected. They proposed a photon-splitting attack utilizing current experimental capabilities, revealing vulnerabilities in multi-photon pulse transmission that allow for interception and eaves dropping. While quantum key distribution remains promising, countermeasures like advanced protocols and detectors are necessary to mitigate these attacks. Further experimental and theoretical studies are needed to fully understand and address these security risks, so corporations and governments should no longer assume that quantum communications cannot be hacked.