Russia Blames West for ISIS-K Terrorist Attack

On March 22, terrorists associated with ISIS-K attacked Crocus City Hall in Moscow, killing 139 people. Four suspects have been arrested, they are from Tajikistan, in Russia on temporary or expired visas. ISIS immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, but Russia’s response has been to blame Ukraine and the West. President Putin stated, “We know that the crime was committed by radical Islamists, whose ideology the Islamic world itself has been fighting for centuries.” But then he added, “[The attack] is a link in a series of attempts of those who have been fighting Russia since 2014 with the hands of the neo-Nazi Kyiv regime.” Russia is not new to Islamist terrorist attacks, but their response increases risks to Western governments and companies because blaming Ukraine and the West for contributing to the attack could justify kinetic or cyber responses by Russia. There is currently no indications that Russia plans to attack the West after scapegoating them, but the government is “investigating” possible links. Besides the increased risks from Russian aggression, this attack is also a reminder that transnational terrorism from Islamists is still a threat, and many corporations face incidental risks from such attacks.

Russia Adds “LGBT Movement” to Terrorism List

The Russian government has added the “LGBT movement” to a list of extremist and terrorist organizations, which follows the 2023 decision by the Russian Supreme Court that LGBT activists should be designated as extremists. This list is maintained by Rosfinmonitoring, and the government agency can sanction and freeze bank accounts of an entities on the list. Organizations included in the extremist/terrorist list include Meta, Alexei Navalny, and al-Qaeda. While Russian is known for its sometimes-violent hostility towards LGBT people, this move has broader geopolitical implications because it highlights the increasing disconnect between Western liberal governments and the rest of the world. For example, a contentious issue in foreign aid in Africa is over recent laws criminalizing homosexuality. By Russia siding with the arch traditionalists, it could turn more African nations away from the West towards Russia and China, which will impact more than social issues as these countries could give access to natural resources while keeping Western companies out.

Ceasefire Resolution Passes UNSC

The US had previously prevented ceasefire resolutions from making it through the UN Security Council by vetoing them, but on March 25 the US allowed such a resolution to pass. This was a significant break from US foreign policy, and it has deeply harmed the US-Israel relationship. Israel criticized the resolution for not tying a ceasefire to Hamas releasing the hostages, and they are extremely unlikely to allow the resolution to prevent further actions in Gaza. Several impacts are likely from this ceasefire resolution. First, this is highly likely to lead to an increase in both pro-Israel and pro-Palestine protests over the short term. Second, Israel will likely take this as an indicator that they need to finish the conflict, and they will likely speed up their ground offensive against Rafah to do so before further UN actions are taken. Finally, this is likely to impact the US presidential election as the Republicans will use this to make President Biden appear anti-Israel.

NIPO Data Indicates Chinese Interest in Quantum

New data released by the Chinese National Intellectual Property Office (NIPO) indicates that 56.5% of all domestic patents in the decade to 2022 were for quantum computing. NIPO’s data also claimed that between 2003-22, 37% of quantum patent applications in the world were Chinese and only 28% were American. Research spending and patents are strong indicators for likely technological direction, and both quantum computing and AI will be critical factors in great power competition. However, the US is still seen as leading in the sector, and the tech trade war between the two countries is likely inhibiting China’s ability to move forward. China has significantly relied on intellectual property theft to make up for their research deficiencies, and the US still has the overwhelming advantage due to the private. This NIPO paper shows how dedicated the CCP is in becoming the leader of the sector, and that should indicate to corporations that they are extremely likely to be targets by Chinese threat actors (for sabotage and theft).

DOD Research Shows Increase in Disinformation in Africa

The Africa Center for Strategic Studies within the US Department of Defense has documented a significant increase in online disinformation against African nations and international agencies operating there. In 2023, there were approximately 189 disinformation campaigns in Africa, which is 400% more than in 2022. This has been especially important as almost 20 African nations will hold elections in 2024. Mark Duerksen, a research associate with the center, noted that disinformation “is not just a technical problem but is also a social and political question that will involve layered responses to build resilience, so the work of cyber experts can only be part of the solution.” Few countries have found effective solutions to managing disinformation, and Africa is a critical area for great power competition between the US and the West against Russia and China. Russia is particularly adept at disinformation, and the autocracy is drawing closer to many countries on the continent. This research shows that the great power competition will go beyond natural resources and military support as it will include information operations and winning political minds.

Bolsonaro Investigated for Stay at Hungarian Embassy

On March 25, Brazil’s federal police started an investigation into former President Jair Bolsonaro’s stay at the Hungarian embassy in Brasilia for two days in February. Security footage indicates that Bolsonaro sought political asylum from Hungary following the government confiscating his passport over an investigation into whether he attempted to incite an insurrection and spread disinformation. If the federal police continue with their investigation and ultimately arrest Bolsonaro on charges related to insurrection, then it is highly likely the right-wing in Brazil will engage in major protests that have a credible risk of becoming violent. How his supporters respond will indicate the likely direction of democracy in Brazil, which will also be a broader indicator for democracy in the rest of South America.

FDD Publishes Research on Cyber Forces

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) has published new research on how the US is woefully mismatched when it comes to having an effective fighting cyber force. From the report: “This research paints an alarming picture. The inefficient division of labor between the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps prevents the generation of a cyber force ready to carry out its mission. Recruitment suffers because cyber operations are not a top priority for any of the services, and incentives for new recruits vary wildly. The services do not coordinate to ensure that trainees acquire a consistent set of skills or that their skills correspond to the roles they will ultimately fulfill at CYBERCOM. Promotion systems often hold back skilled cyber personnel because the systems were designed to evaluate servicemembers who operate on land, at sea, or in the air, not in cyberspace. Retention rates for qualified personnel are low because of inconsistent policies, institutional cultures that do not value cyber expertise, and insufficient opportunities for advanced training.”

Reuters Produces Important Research on Drones in Ukraine

Both the Ukrainians and Russians have effectively used drones in combat, and this conflict is becoming an important case study for how drones (and other emerging technology) will be used in wars of the future. Reuters has extensively documented the types of drones used in the conflict and how they have been operated. Security professionals should assiduously study this issue because drones and even drone swarms are highly likely to be used in future attacks. See here for Reuters’ research and graphics on the topic.